- 學位論文
應用移民理論探討留美學生對台灣經濟的貢獻
Contribution of Student Migrants to the United States on Economic Growth in Taiwan
摘要
本研究是極少數的實證研究中，證明移民對於母國(home country)有正面的(brain gain)影響。首先，我們將台灣在美國的留學生視作移民的勞動者，並應用Stark (2004)的理論來做驗證。接著，基於Lucas (1988)的成長理論，我們加入了內生性成長的模型。因此，本研究包括移民的實證模型以及將移民和成長混合的實證模型;我們的研究目的是要探討那些留美移民者對於台灣經濟成長的貢獻。而我們的貢獻是在勞動經濟及經濟發展的領域裡，提出了一個極為有趣的研究。 台灣到美國留學已有很長的一段歷史，然而這些留美學生完成學業後，大部分選擇待在美國，許多學者認為如此對於台灣有人才流失的問題。我們將提出一個不同於以往的假設，我們認為那些留美學生對於台灣經濟是正面而不是負面的影響。在1950到1980年代，出國留學是很競爭的，當時大家會很認真求取知識，也因此累積了更多的人力資本。不過最後只有部分人能到美國留學，那些大部分待在國內的人，對於台灣經濟有了更大的貢獻。 我們使用的資料是年資料，資料期間從1952到2009年，長達58年。有關於留學生在美國留學人數的資料是從美國國際教育協會(Institute of International Education or (IIE)出版的Open Doors所取得。我們使用了OLS及3SLS來做檢定，還使用了CUSUM test，發現沒有結構性改變的問題;單根檢定的結果則顯示大部分的變數都是非定態的，於是我們也做了一階差分的處理。 根據分析結果，留美學生(移民者)對於台灣經濟有顯著且正面的影響，另外，留學非美國的學生對於台灣經濟也有正面的影響，不過效果較留學美國的低。此外，台灣碩博士畢業生對於台灣經濟也有貢獻，不過也比留美學生來的低。並且，出口對於台灣經濟也扮演了重要的角色。綜合來看，留美學生對台灣是有利的。近幾年留美學生人數呈現遞減的現象，根據本論文的研究結果，為了促使學生累積更多人力資本，台灣政府應該鼓勵留學生到美國留學。
並列摘要
This study represents one of very few empirical studies attempting to validate the brain gain effect of migration to home country. At first, we treat the students studying abroad in the United States as migrants of skilled labor analyzed in the migration theory by Stark (2004). Then, we incorporate endogenous growth specification based on Lucas (1988). Therefore, we construct the empirical model of migration and the mixed migration with growth model in this study. The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether or not student migrants to the U.S. contribute to Taiwan’s economic growth. We expect to make a contribution by providing an interesting empirical study in the fields of labor economics and economic development. Taiwan has a long history of sending students to study in the United States. After these students finished their studies, most of them stayed and lived there. Most scholars think it was brain drain for Taiwan. We proposed a different hypothesis in this study and that is, the number of student migrants positively rather than negatively affect economic growth in Taiwan. Since it was very competitive to study abroad, students had to study very hard forming human capital notably from 1950s to 1980s. Not everyone could succeed going to the U.S. Those who left behind would work in Taiwan and contributed to its economic growth. We used annual data covering the period from 1952 to 2009, totally 58 years. The data on the number of students studying in the U.S. were published in Open Doors by the Institute of International Education (IIE). We presented the regression results using OLS and 3SLS methods, depending upon the results of endogeneity test. We also conducted CUSUM test and the results show no structural change. The unit root test show that most variables are non-stationary in our model. Therefore, we also estimated the model by taking first difference. Our study found that student migrants had a significant and positive effect on Taiwan’s economic growth. Students studied in the non-U.S. countries also had a positive effect on Taiwan’s economic growth, but the impact was not as large as the student migrants in the U.S. In addition, Master and Ph.D. graduates in Taiwan may have contributed to Taiwan’s economic growth, but not as significant. Moreover, export also played an important role in Taiwan’s economic growth. Overall, we found the brain gain effect from the students studying abroad in the U.S. In recent years, the number of students going to study in the U.S. declined. In order to induce more human capital accumulation as shown in this study, Taiwan government should encourage more students to study abroad, specifically to the United States.