決策中的統計模型

Statistical Model on Decision Making

莊浩平(Chuang Hao-Ping)

指導教授 ： 潘瑋

國立中正大學/理學院/物理學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

經過歷代演化，有害的基因、行為都會慢慢消失，不會普遍存在。普遍存在的，必然有某些好處。所以，當成不理性選擇行為，背後應該隱藏更大的利益。
在阿萊悖論中人們有不理性的選擇。我們可以用我們的模型來解釋他們的不合理行為，我們找些學生參與實驗，我們觀察他們的行為來檢驗我們的模型
在人們不理性的選擇行為背後的確影藏某些利益，並且有個極大化效用。因此，我們可以說不理性其實是理性的。

關鍵字

選擇 ； 決策

並列摘要

During the process of evolution, the deleterious genes and recessive alleles with negative effects are eliminated slowly by purifying selection and they normally do not exist in most populations. The good genes, which aid the survival of the species, are usually perpetuated and beneficial for a better fit with the environment. Therefore, there might be hidden benefits when there are some irrational and unreasonable human behaviors.
Human has irrational decision in Allais Paradox. We can use our model to explain why they are irrational, and we find some students to participate in experiment. We observe thier behavior to test our model
There are hidden benefits when there are some irrational and unreasonable human behaviors, and there is maximization when we make decisions. We can say illustrating that they are rational.

並列關鍵字

Decision

參考文獻

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[7] Allais, M. (1953). "Le comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école Américaine". Econometrica 21 (4): 503–546.

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