- 學位論文
銀行業地區分行授信案件違約因素之探討
A Study on Default Factors for Taiwan Regional Bank Branches
摘要
國家經濟成長與產業發展過程之中，中小企業無論在拓展對外貿易、增加國民所得，或是在創造就業機會、促進社會安定方面，可以說是扮演關鍵性的重要角色。不過，誠如許多相關調查報告顯示，由於中小企業具有進入門檻低、經營彈性大之特性，不但會計資訊透明度不足，利用資本市場取得經營資金相對不易。為分散授信風險及配合政府振興經濟政策，原本取得資金不易之中小企業在移送信保基金保證之後，造成逾期放款之原因除了外在景氣因素影響及銀行內部評等機制不夠完備之外，大部份財務比率失去分析的價值，但銀行授信時，借戶所提供之財務報表，卻仍是銀行所必須參酌之重要依據。 本研究透過Logistic迴歸分析建構出最佳授信品質預測模型，找出造成逾期放款之顯著因子，期能降低逾期放款之發生率，適時發現企業財務體質惡化的徵兆，更有效管理逾期放款，提高銀行授信品質。而由研究結果可以看出，「信保基金保證成數低、企業負責人及配偶有雙卡循環動用、營授比率高、生產事業、銀行內部信評低、近三月JCIC查詢次數多」等六項變數表徵者，是造成較高之逾放比例的主要因素，因此應針對有這些因素之授信戶，提高其授信擔保比率以降低授信風險，並訂定不同放款訂價策略，以降低中小企業授信違約風險。
並列摘要
With the country's economic growth and industrial development process, expanding foreign trade, increasing national income, or promoting social stability by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), can be said to play a key role. But, as many of the relevant survey report show that SMEs have low barriers to entry due to operating characteristics of elasticity, and not only lack of transparency of accounting information, but relatively not easy to obtain operating funds from capital market. This study constructs the best credit quality prediction model to identify significant factors resulting in Non-performing loan (NPL), timely finding the signs of SMES financial deterioration, and managing Non-performing loan more effectively to promote the loan quality by Logistic Regression.BY the results, the six variable characterization "low Small and Medium Business Credit Guarantee Fund (SMEG) guarantee proportion, each of business executive or spouse has dual card cycle use, high loan to revenues ratio, the production business, low bank's internal credit rating, more often inquiry frequency in latest three months " was the major factors to the higher proportion of Non-performing loan, therefore banks should increase the loan guarantee proportion in order to reduce credit risk, and set different loan pricing strategies to reduce SMEs credit default risk.