台灣經濟發展過程中,中小企業一直扮演著舉足輕重的角色。當前中小企業面臨的經營環境較以往更為嚴峻,據經濟部「2007年中小企業白皮書」引述財稅資料中心的資料顯示,2006年124萬家中小企業裡,經營年數超過5年的家數占61.93%,其中10年以上占42.05%,經營未滿1年的企業家數占8.71%。也就是說中小企業在創業前五年,經營相當不穩定,約有近4成企業存活時間無法超過5年,足見中小企業經營之困難,除受限規模小、競爭激烈,資金取得困難應是最主要原因。 然而中小企業長期以來融資困難的主因,不外乎受限於企業規模小、自有資本不足、缺乏擔保品、會計制度不健全等因素。為改善中小企業融資的困難,因此本研究期望能建制一套同時結合企業財務因素及非財務因素等指標之中小企業財務危機預警模式,以提供中小企業利用本財務危機模型,以偵測企業財務體質惡化的徵兆,提供企業防範之道,以降低企業經營風險;也可提供給各金融機構作為企業授信政策的參考,藉由精確地評估出企業真正的風險,以減少逾催款、呆帳發生之機率,降低銀行的經營風險與成本。 回顧過去國內外學者研究有關企業預警模型之相關文獻,主要以大型企業或上市上櫃公司為主,較少單獨針對中小企業作研究。與中小企業有關文獻如Pompe and Bilderbeek(2005)、白欽元(2003)、張國浩(2004)等針對探討中小企業財務危機預警模式之研究,多以財務比率為研究變數而未納入會影響企業生存發展之非財務因素。另一方面由於中小企業財報的可信度低,財務報表往往無法允當表達企業實際經營現況,因此若同時建構兼具財務變數及非財務變數之財務危機預警模式,將可有效提升預測能力之正確率。 本研究透過相關文獻選取出12項有效財務變數再結合中小企業個案探討萃取出具攸關性之18項非財務變數,並透過因素分析以篩選出具解釋能力的研究變數,再採用Mann-Whitney U Test 及Logistic迴歸分析進行研究假設之驗證,以建構中小企業財務危機預警模式。依據實證分析結果,本研究獲得以下結論: (1)負責人使用現金卡於財務危機發生前二年可達顯著性。 (2)負責人使用現金卡、速動比率於財務危機發生前三年可達顯著性。
The small and medium enterprises are always to hold the balance in the economic evolution of Taiwan. At the present the management environment which small and medium enterprises is face more severe than in the past. According to the economic department “The white paper of small and medium enterprises of 2007, the management year number surpasses 5 years teaching of arts and crafts to account for 61.93%, above 10 years account for 42.05%, manage not the full 1 year enterprise teaching of arts and crafts to account for 8.71% ,1.24 million small and medium enterprises In 2006. small and medium enterprises manage quite unstable before starting an undertaking for five years, have nearly 40% enterprises survive time unable to exceed five years, it serves to show the difficulty that small and medium enterprises to operate a business, except that limited and in small scale, the competition is fierce, it should be a main reason that the fund obtains the difficulty. However the main reason of the financing difficulty for a long time of small and medium enterprises, such factors as that limited and in small scale, own capital is insufficient, lack collateral, incomplete accounting system. In order to improve the difficulty of the small and medium enterprises finance, Therefore this research hope to build up financial factor and non-financial factor financial prewarning model. The review the domestic and foreign scholars studied the related enterprise to forewarn correlation of literature in the past the model, mainly or went on the market on the cabinet company by the major industry primarily, are less alone does the research in view of small and medium enterprises .With small and medium enterprises related literature like Pompe and Bilderbeek (2005), Bai Qin Yuan (2003), Zhang Kuohao (2004) and so on the financial prewarning research the model in view of the discussion small and medium enterprises , many but the natrium has not joined a society take the financial factor as the research variable the influence enterprise survival development the non-financial factor. This research selects 12 effective financial factor from relevant documents to combine with small and medium enterprise’s case study to provide 18 non-financial factor, and to sift the research parameter have explains ability from factor analysis, to adopt Mann-Whitney U Test and Logistic regression analysis , in order to build and construct the financial prewarning model of small and medium enterprises. According to the analysis result of real example, this research obtains the following conclusion: (1)The director can reach the noticeable take place in two years before the financial prewarning while using the cash card. (2)The director uses the cash card and quick ratio can reach the noticeable take place in three years before the financial prewarning.