摘要 美國自九一一事件後,長達數年之久的反恐戰爭未使恐怖主義消失;反之,全球反恐情勢更加嚴峻,威脅各國之國土安全。概括而言,自九一一事件後,舊的恐怖主義形式已正在解體,一種複雜的與模糊不清的新現實正在出現:新興恐怖主義的政治色彩淡化、組織性較差,但破壞力更強,對傳統反恐的有效性已構成挑戰。當代國際需處理的問題為國際恐怖主義之威脅,同時各國又必須自力於本土型恐怖主義與孤狼型彼等新型恐怖主義。在面對手段靈活的新興恐怖主義,如何事前預警,並達到事先阻止恐怖攻擊發生,達到維護國土安全之目的,實為當前國際一刻不容緩之課題。 預警的概念自古有之,是一種對即將發生對自己產生危害行為的提前警報。由預警概念衍生出來的預警情報亦同,美國在第二次世界大戰時曾大量使用它,其目的就是要避免「軍事突襲」或「不宣之戰」,特別是,它因進攻性武器的發展,例如現代武器、長程發射系統(和對其毀傷能力產生的擔憂,順乎自然地產生的一種戰略追問,即如何才能盡早地發現對己造成安全威脅的徵兆並提前發出警示? 由於新興恐怖主義不同以往的傳統恐怖主義,在反恐作為上更顯困難,因此尤其需要預警情報其「制敵機先」的特性,透過情報單位的情報蒐集,經過預警研判與預警分析後成為預防新興恐怖攻擊的預警情報。 關鍵字:預警情報、新興恐怖主義、國土安全
Abstract After the 911 attack,the war on terror by the United States does not make terrorism disappear;on the contrary, the global situation on combating terrorism has become harder, and modern terrorism is threatening homeland security worldwide.Generally speaking, traditional terrorism is turning into modern terrorism, causing new threat to nations globally.How to predict modern terrorist attack is an urgent study. Surprise military actions and undeclared initiation of wars are not, of course, exclusively a modern phenomenon. History has recorded many such actions, going back at least to the introduction of the wooden horse into the ancient city of Troy. The military intelligence services of all major powers during World War II devoted much of their time to collection and analysis of information concerning the military plans and intentions of their enemies in an effort to anticipate future enemy actions. Many of the problems and techniques associated with warning or indications analysis were recognized and practiced during World War II. Since modern terrorism is far different from traditional terrorism, the way on combating terrorism is even difficult than before. Therefore, warning intelligence provides information about terrorist attack and authority can prevent terrorist attack from happening. Key Words: Warning intelligence, Modern Terrorism, Homeland Security