大範圍淹水地區物資配送系統動力分析-以屏東縣為例

System Dynamics Analysis of Relief Supplies Delivery in Large Inundation Region-A Case of Pingtung County

黃詠俊(Huang Yung Chun)

指導教授 ： 葉一隆

國立屏東科技大學/工學院/土木工程系所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2013.00084

摘要

2009年莫拉克颱風在台灣南部地區降下豐沛雨量，位於屏東縣林邊鄉與佳冬鄉交界的林邊溪沿岸部份堤防遭河水沖刷損壞，導致沿海的低窪地區發生大範圍淹水災情並破壞了排水及維生系統，部份居民緊急前往臨時收容所避難，也有部分居民受困於住家中不及撤離。在積水多日未退的情況下，需求大量民生物資的訊息湧進了災害應變中心，但淹水災情影響了交通運輸，導致部份地區物資運送困難。本文即以當時大範圍淹水情形下物資配送之概況為基礎，並參考當前屏東縣政府針對大型災害的物資配送機制，嘗試以系統動力學建構出大範圍淹水情況下物資配送的模擬模型，並模擬不同的配送策略對物資運送成效的影響。
根據模擬結果顯示，在交通順暢的條件之下，及早的提出物資需求以及增加物資的運輸量可以提昇物資供給的效率，但倘若災情擴大超出其因應上限時，則必須與鄰近地區事先建立合作機制，以協助收容民眾並提供支援物資。另外在交通受阻的淹水地區，物資運送必須仰賴可於淹水區域行動的救生艇，在使用救生艇運送物資的同時，協調部份就地避難民眾撤離淹水區域，並適度的調整救生艇使用比例，將可有效的解決淹水區域內的物資配送問題。

關鍵字

莫拉克颱風 ； 大範圍淹水 ； 系統動力學 ； 救災物資配送

並列摘要

Typhoon Morakot brought abundant rainfall in southern Taiwan in 2009, parts of the dike along the Linbian and Jiadon townships were destroyed by the flushing of river water. It not only caused a large scale flooding on the low-lying lands along the coast but also spoiled the drainage and lives maintain systems in Linbian and Jiadon townships, Pingtung County. Parts of residents had gone to the temporary refuge immediately and some residents were not able to escape trapped in their house. Because the flood was not able to drain off and maintained several weeks, required a great deal of living goods information suddenly crowded into Emergency Operations Center. However, the flooding condition affected transportation that caused the difficulty to distribute supplies in parts of regions. This research was examined the distribution of living goods based on the condition of large scale of flooding. The mechanism of living goods distribution in a serious disaster condition proposed by Ping Tung County Government was taken as reference. The aim of this study was attempted to build a simulation model for living goods distribution by System Dynamics. Several distribution strategies were simulated to examine their effect on living goods distribution.
According to the simulation results, under the smooth traffic condition, the living goods supply efficiency was able to enhance when the required of living goods demand at earlier and increased the transportation of carrying capacities. However, if the disaster spread and exceeded its control limitation, it has to make cooperation mechanism with neighboring region in order to help take in residents and offer living goods. Moreover, in the flooding area, the distributing living goods should rely on lifeboats that can move in the flooding area. The lifeboats provide both living goods distributing and coordinating the local residents retreat. Finally, the appropriated adjust the using ratios of lifeboat that can effectively resolve the distributing living goods in the flooding area.

並列關鍵字

Typhoon Morakot ； Large inundation region ； System Dynamics ； Relief supplies delivery

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