運動是保護強者的,在網球比賽中都會排種子序來保護實力較強的選手,種子選手之間在第一輪是不會碰到彼此的,這是為了保障最好的球員不會在賽事前幾輪就因彼此對上而出局所訂的機制。因此對於選手而言,取得種子是相當重要的一環,目前青少年網球比賽是以選手排名作為排列種子序的依據。國際網球總會(International Tennis Federation,ITF)的排名計算是根據所獲得分數中最佳的六場分數總合來決定。除了ITF排名外,還有另一項能衡量選手實力的指標,統一網球指標(Universal Tennis Rating,UTR),是universaltennis.com所提供的一種網球能力指標,而UTR計算的依據是各場網球比賽的結果,例如:一盤定勝負制下6:4代表雙方選手的能力約略相同而給予接近的UTR分數。本研究目的希望利用UTR來預測青少年男子網球選手比賽結果,在未來可作為排定比賽種子序的依據,並利用UTR建立選手排名和各級比賽之間的關係。研究顯示UTR在預測比賽表現整體都優於ITF排名,由此顯示UTR數據較能客觀評估選手的能力。建議日後比賽種子序的安排採用UTR會比較準確。
Stronger players have benefits on any sport. Better players are protected by seeding. All seeded players will not fight each other in first run of tennis tournament. So they won’t face another seeded player and be eliminated in the early round. So, it’s very important to be a seeded player in tennis. Ranking is the only criterion for deciding sequence of seeds in male junior’s tournament and ranking is calculated by players’ best 6 tournament results by ITF. There is another index to measure player’s performance in tennis, UTR, Universal Tennis Rating, is designed by universaltennis.com. UTR is calculated by the results of the rivalry. For example, if the rivalry was 6:4 in a set, then players can be assigned with similar UTR. Hence, the study aims at to predict the results using player’s UTR and could be use as another criterion to decide seeded sequence. The study shows UTR is a better predictor than ITF ranking on objectively evaluating player’s performance. We suggest that using UTR to decide seeding sequence will be fair.