本文分析2009年4月到2012年9月之間,在台灣東部海岸山脈的南段(台30線公路以南)所收集到276筆穿山甲的出現記錄,其中捕捉及目睹資料127筆,紅外線自動相機13筆、痕跡124筆及其他研究者提供記錄12筆;這些記錄共對應到193個1 ha的網格。本文以MAXENT、DK-GARP、OM-GARP和Two-class SVM四個常用物種分佈模式分別建模。結果四個模式的AUC值均大於0.7,顯示預測結果均良好。若以最少兩模式同時預測有分佈之網格作為有效預測,則南段預測有分布面積共277.6 km2,占南段總面積43.2 %;其中,「海岸山脈野生動物重要棲息環境」有穿山甲網格只占21.8 %,顯示並非理想的穿山甲棲息地。預測結果棲息地利用主要偏向10-40 °的中低坡度、海拔200-1000 m、1月降雨量較少、全天光空域125以上中高值、NDVI中高範圍及坡向為西和西北坡的地區。利用前述原則,本文預測北段(台30線公路以北)有穿山甲分布的區域只佔北段面積的14.1 %。整體而言,全海岸山脈預測有分布面積共350.6km2,占海岸山脈總面積的27.2 %。結果顯示,海岸山脈穿山甲可能之分佈區域主要為海岸山脈南段地區,因穿山甲主要分布區域中保護區面積並不大,顯示現有保育策略可能會有所不足,建議應對保護區以外地區作更積極的保育行動,如推動在地的社區保育與部落巡守制度。同時,北段如刪除不適合棲息環境後,適合穿山甲分布地區面積占39 %,比預測結果的14.1 %高,顯示若能強化北段中低海拔國有林的保育與復育,應該可以增加當地的族群量和分佈範圍。
This article analyzed 276 records of the pangolin (Manis pentadactyla pentadactyla) or its tracks, collected from April 2009 to September 2012 in the southern part (area south of the Provincial Highway 30) of the Coastal Mountain Range (CMR), Taitung County, Taiwan, to establish their habitat distribution model. These records correspond to 193 1-ha grids. Four wildlife distribution models, namely: MAXENT、DK-GARP、OM-GARP and Two-class SVM, were used. The AUC value of the four models were all above 0.7, which indicates the prediction is reliable. This article considered only those grids predicted “present” by at least 2 models as Potential Pangolin Present Grids (PPPGs). Result showed that the total coverage of the PPPGs was 277.6km2 (= 43.2% grids) in the study area; while only 21.8% grids in the Coastal Mountain Range Major Wildlife Habitat were PPPGs that suggested this protected area is not a suitable habitat for the pangolin. Results also showed that pangolins prefer 10-40° slopes, lower elevation (200-1000m), above 125 of high Whole Light Sky Space, high range of NDVI, slopes with western and north-western aspects. There were only 14.1% of grids in the northern part of the CMR were predicted as PPPGs. Overall, PPPGs covered 350.6km2 (= 27.2 %) of the Coastal Mountain Range. However, although the southern part of the CMR is presently the most important pangolins habitat, very few area within it are protected by the law. There should be more conservation actions, such as community-based conservation activities, in the non-protected areas. Also, the northern part of the CMR should provide more suitable habitats for the pangolin if active habitat management for the lower elevation forests can be done.