核子事故車輛撤離灰色博弈模式探討－以臺灣核三廠為例

2011年3月11日日本發生芮氏規模9.0的淺層地震，並引發大海嘯；地震與海嘯導致福島核電廠緊急柴油發電機、爐心冷卻水系統失效，反應爐無法降溫，部份燃料熔損輻射物質外釋，環境嚴重污染，因此核子事故民眾防護行動備受重視。臺灣電力公司核能三廠位於屏東縣恆春鎮，在緊急應變計畫區半徑範圍8公里範圍包括恆春鎮及滿州鄉港口與永靖兩村。當核子事故發生且災情無法控制時，將導致疏散範圍逐步擴大。在資訊不充足且民眾自主疏散撤離時，車輛疏散路線之規劃甚為重要。當民眾在交通資訊不確定狀態下之疏散撤離行為為博弈系統，而道路在受災後之路況為疏散撤離之拘限條件。本文利用灰色理想約束及灰色臨界約束來表示道路狀況條件，以博弈理論來評估核三廠發生事故時，疏散車輛對路線選擇之決策對車流之影響，由分析結果顯示灰色約束條件可表示道路順暢程度，而博弈理論可用於評估疏散車輛最適路徑解。

關鍵字

灰博弈模式；核子災害；核三廠；交通疏散

並列摘要

The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred at 14:46, March 11, 2011, with magnitude 9.0 Mw. The earthquake center was approximately 70 km east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tohoku district in Japan. It triggered huge tsunami waves that reached heights of up to about 20 m. After the earthquake, the nuclear reactors in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant were shut down automatically. Unfortunately, the followed Tsunami attacked the emergency generators and consequently the station black out occurred. Then all cooling systems of the reactors stopped and three reactors experienced full meltdown. The accident induced serious environment pollution and the government paid attention on nuclear emergency public protective actions. The Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant is located nearby South Bay, Hengchun, Pingtung County, Taiwan. The radius 8 km area of emergency planning zone includes Hengchun and Manjhou townships. When the nuclear emergency happens and the situation is out of control. The people evacuate gradually increaded. When the evacuation information is not sufficient and roads damaged condition is unknown, the planning of evacuation routes is important. The behavior of uncertainty evacuation under unsufficient traffic information is a game system and the roads damaged situation is a constrain condition. In this study, the grey constrain was used to represent the road damaged and the game theory used to decide the choice of evacuation vehicle route. The results showed that the combination of grey and game theory can determinte the best evacuation routes.