嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19)對台灣觀光產業股價表現影響之研究

The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the performances of tourism stock prices in Taiwan

洪絲晴(Hong Si-Qing)

指導教授 ： 黃靖淑 ； 潘璟靜

國立屏東科技大學/管理學院/餐旅管理系/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST202200029

摘要

本研究主要目的乃以事件研究法來檢驗嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19)爆發對台灣觀光產業類股股價造成的影響，並比較三波COVID-19帶來的影響差異，並將觀光產業分為五大行業類股，分析該五種行業類股在不同波疫情衝擊下的反應。研究結果顯示COVID-19爆發使台灣觀光產業類股價顯著低於加權平均股價指數(TAIEX)，研究亦發現第三波COVID-19爆發時，顯著股價比前兩波COVID-19爆發時好，可能是因前兩波COVID-19的經驗減少投資人恐慌，使投資人可能做出損益兩平效應的反應；而旅館業、餐飲業、娛樂業和旅行社業累計到第5期皆顯著比航空業受到更大的衝擊；在分析三波COVID-19爆發期間的五大行業股價時發現，餐飲業和旅行社業在第二、三波受影響為嚴重，航空業則在第三波表現最好，餐飲業和旅行社業的投資人可能表現出蛇咬效應；反之，航空業因貨運事業大好，而使投資人表現出損益兩平效應。
本研究建議，再度面臨類似疫情侵襲等問題時，旅館業和旅行社業可以向國內旅遊市場發展；旅館業和餐飲業可以增加廚藝教學課程或增加外帶、外送比例；娛樂業則是可以改經營線上平台；航空業則是應該投入貨運市場，加以彌補損失。

關鍵字

嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19) ； 觀光產業類股 ； 事件研究法 ； 行為財務學

並列摘要

The main purpose of this study was to examine the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the tourism stock market by using the research method of event study. It also compared the differences in the impact of three waves of COVID-19. Taiwan tourism stocks were the sample and divided them into five categories, including hotel industry, the catering industry, the entertainment industry, the travel agency industry, and the airline industry. The results of the study show that the COVID-19 outbreak has made Taiwan's tourism industry stock prices significantly lower than TWSE Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX); comparing the impact of the three waves of COVID-19 outbreaks on tourism industry stock prices, it is found that when the third wave of COVID-19 broke out, the stock market performed significantly better than the previous two waves of COVID-19; It may be that the experience of the first two waves of COVID-19 has reduced investor panic, and investors may respond to break-even effect; The five major industry stock prices, the hotel industry, the catering industry, the entertainment industry and the travel agency industry, have been significantly more impacted than the aviation industry to the fifth period; And as the epidemic situation becomes more severe, the impact will be more severe; Finally, analyzing the performance of the five major industry stock prices during the three waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, it is found that the catering industry and travel agency industry were severely affected in the second and third waves, while the aviation industry performed best in the third wave; Therefore, it may be possible to explain that the catering industry and travel agency industry have seen a snake bite effect in the stock market due to the continuous epidemic. Conversely, the aviation industry has shifted its focus of operations to cargo operations, which has resulted in break-even effect in the stock market.
From this study, it was also found that when faced with similar epidemics and other problems, the hotel industry and travel agency industry can develop into the domestic tourism market; the hotel industry and catering industry can increase cooking teaching courses or increase the proportion of take-out delivery; the entertainment industry can consider switching to online platforms; the aviation industry should switch to the cargo market to make up for the loss.

並列關鍵字

COVID-19 ； Tourism stock ； Event Study method ； Behavioral Finance

參考文獻

參考文獻

中文文獻

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