新冠肺炎（COVID-19）對台灣ETF股價之影響

經濟合作與發展組織（OECD）預測，受新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情影響，全球經濟會出現2009年以來最慢的增速。相比國際情勢，臺灣的疫情雖然不嚴重，但由於主要貿易市場皆為重災區，如美國、中國和日本等國家，因而臺灣出口明顯下降，再加上邊境管制措施，使得國內許多以國際觀光客為主的服務業，營收大幅下滑，衝擊了勞動市場，並影響經濟成長的表現。全球經濟景氣瞬息萬變，在疫情尚未穩定下，投資人對於疫情後續影響仍充滿疑慮，增加投資策略的不確定性。本研究以臺灣衛生福利部疾病管制署公告之新冠肺炎疫情總確診數、新增確診數、總死亡數、新增死亡數及臺灣經濟新報資料庫之台灣指數股票型基金 (ETF) 為研究標的，研究期間2020年1月16日至2021年09月15日，資料頻率為日資料。研究方法採用敘述性統計分析、相關係數分析、迴歸分析，探討新冠肺炎疫情期間對台灣指數股票型基金 (ETF) 股價之影響。實證結果顯示，在新冠肺炎疫情期間，股價變動受新增確診數 (NC) 與新增死亡數 (ND) 負面影響。成交量 (VOL) 呈現不顯著負面影響；在費用率(ER)、股利率 (DY) 均呈顯著負面影響；而資產規模 (SIZE) 為顯著正面影響。

關鍵字

新冠肺炎；總確診數；總死亡數；台灣指數股票型基金；股價

並列摘要

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that the global economy will experience the slowest growth rate since 2009 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared with the international situation, although Taiwan's epidemic is not serious, Taiwan's exports have dropped significantly because major trading markets such as the United States, China, and Japan are all hardest hit areas. Coupled with border control measures in Taiwan, the revenue of many domestic service industries dominated by international tourists has fallen sharply, which has impacted the labor market and affected the performance of economic growth. The global economic climate is changing rapidly. While the epidemic has not yet stabilized, investors are still full of doubts about the follow-up impact of the epidemic, increasing the uncertainty of investment strategies. This study takes the total confirmed cases, newly confirmed cases, total deaths, newly added deaths of COVID-19 pandemic announced by Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Taiwan Index Stock Fund (ETF) of Taiwan's Economic News Database as the research target. The research period is from January 16, 2020 to September 15, 2021, and the data frequency is daily data. The research method uses descriptive statistical analysis, correlation coefficient analysis, and regression analysis to explore the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the stock price of Taiwan Index Stock Fund (ETF). The empirical results show that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stock price changes are negatively affected by newly confirmed (NC) and newly died (ND). Volume (VOL) showed no significant negative impact. Expense Ratio (ER) and Dividend Rate (DY) both had significant negative impacts; while Asset Size (SIZE) had a significant positive impact.