國民政府自1987年陸續開放國外菸酒進口以來,白熱化競爭造就菸酒微利時代的來臨。有鑑於氣候對於菸酒市場具有重大影響力,因此,本研究透過探討氣象因子對於菸酒銷售之關聯性,期望能有助於菸酒產業營運決策之參考,除了規避因氣候變異所帶來的損失風險之外,進而希望能藉由本研究對於氣象因子對購貨關聯性之分析,來協助廠商能輔以專業氣象預測資訊加以綜合考量,安排適切的生產排程與原物料規劃,以及菸酒通路的行銷策略擬定,提供更優質菸酒產品與更精準有效的行銷策略參考依據。 本研究採用個案公司菸酒零售商交易資料與中央氣象局氣象觀測資料,運用簡單線性迴歸分析法(Simple Linear Regression Analysis)與多元線性迴歸分析法(Multiple Linear Regression Analysis)來探討菸酒銷售與氣象因子之關聯性。 研究結果顯示,氣象因子確實顯著影響著多數酒類市場需求,高體感溫度、低氣壓的天氣型態會增加啤酒銷售﹔當秋高氣爽的天氣型態來臨時,則是葡萄酒類最受歡迎的時節﹔低日照時數且寒風刺骨的天氣型態則是藥味酒類最熱賣的時候﹔每當氣候轉變為寒冷高氣壓型態時,米酒類市場需求將格外明顯增加。 菸酒相關產業之營運策略擬定,若能有效納入氣象因子變數,加以整合規劃,相信其成效必然有所加乘。
Since 1987, the government allowed foreign companies to import alcohol and tobacco, creating intense competition or the maket of low-profit alcohol and tobacco. Given that the climate has a significant influence on the market of tobacco and alcohol, the present study integrates the association of alcohol and tobacco sales and meteorological factors, hoping to help provide suggestions for managers of tobacco industry for decision-making. In this study, transaction data from a tobacco retailers company and the Bureau of Central Meteorological observations were adopted. By using simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis﹐this study investigates the relationship between alcohol sales and the meteorological factors. The results showed meteorological factors significantly affect most of the liquor market demand. High apparent temperature and low pressure will increase beer sales. Grape wine is the most popular in autumn﹐whereas medicinal wine is the best-selling liquor in the weather type of low sunshine and cold weather. When the climate turns to cold and high pressure , market demand for rice wine will increase. If meteorological factors could be considered, strategic planning made by managers of tobacco and related industries would become more effective.