進口服飾品牌銷售的天氣效應 – 以P品牌在百貨通路為例

Weather Effects on Sales of Imported Apparel Brands – A Case of P Brand in Department Stores

張書豪(Shu-Hao Chang)

指導教授 ： 林靖

國立臺北大學/商學院/國際財務金融碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

摘要

種種跡象顯示，天氣影響了許多商品的銷售。本研究分析某進口服飾品牌在百貨公司專櫃的歷史銷售資料，探討其中是否也存在天氣效應。具體來說，本研究運用三種方法分析了銷售金額和六種天氣變數之間的關連性，包括氣壓、氣溫、濕度、雨量、日照和雲量。

首先，將各項天氣因素獨立區隔，以均數差檢定來檢視哪些天氣變數會顯著影響銷售金額。其次，運用複迴歸模型探究在不同銷售期間的天氣效應，例如春夏商品季、秋冬商品季，以及銷售淡旺季等，以排除季節性因素和價格因素。最後，採用Logit模型檢驗哪些因素的變動會顯著影響變動當日銷售金額大於當年度平均銷售金額的機率，並推估個別天氣因素變動所造成的影響幅度。

研究發現溫度顯著影響秋冬商品季的銷售金額，但對春夏商品季的銷售金額影響則不顯著；相對地，雨量顯著影響春夏商品季銷售金額，但對秋冬商品季銷售金額則無影響。此外，在百貨公司舉辦促銷活動的檔期間，無論哪一個天氣因素，對銷售金額皆毫無影響，因為在這段期間對消費者來說，價格因素比天氣因素更具影響力。總括而言，氣溫和雨量是影響服飾品牌在百貨公司銷售金額最主要的兩個因素。

關鍵字

銷售 ； 服飾 ； 天氣效應 ； 百貨

並列摘要

There has been a great deal of anecdotal evidence to imply that weather has significant impact on sales of many products. This paper provides empirical evidence to verify if weather effect can also be applied to an apparel brand in department stores. Specifically, the daily sales of an apparel brand are collected and 6 weather variables including air pressure, temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunlight, and cloudiness are analyzed in three methods.

First, the six weather variables are examined individually by bin test to confirm which variable significantly affects the sales. Second, multiple-regression analysis is adopted to prove if there is weather effect in varied sales periods, such as the sales seasons of spring-summer collections and fall-winter collections, the peak and off-peak seasons, etc, in order to eliminate seasonal impact or price influence. Last, I used logistic regression to measure the extent of the weather effect by analyzing which weather variable has significant impact on the possibility of the day sales over the annual average daily sales.

The results show that temperature significantly affects the fall-winter sales while it does not affect the spring-summer sales. By contrast, the rainfall significantly affects the spring-summer sales but it does not affect the fall-winter sales. Additionally, all of the six weather factors have no impact on sales during department store promotion seasons when consumers are more sensitive to price than to weather conditions. In general, temperature and rainfall are the two most significant factors that affect the sales.

並列關鍵字

department store ； sales ； apparel ； weather effect

參考文獻

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