氣候因素對零售業銷售額之影響-以百貨公司、超級市場、便利商店及量販店為例

「天氣」與人類生活息息相關，天氣的變化牽動著人類生理與心理反應，進而影響經濟行為與消費活動，天氣在人類的經濟活動中扮演著重要角色，天氣不僅決定了人類的生活，更影響著消費者的消費習慣。「氣候經濟學（Meteorological Economics）」在近年逐漸受到重視，因為天氣變化牽動著經濟發展，如能掌握氣候資訊即能有所預防並採取行動，以減少氣候變化所造成的災害損失或是利用有益的氣候條件進行經濟活動以獲取利益。本研究目的係為探討零售業銷售額與天氣變化之間的關係，以及天氣變化影響零售業銷售額的程度。本研究蒐集民國88年至108年間全台百貨公司業、超級市場業、便利商店業及零售式量販業的銷售額資料，以及同期間全台每月平均氣溫、平均相對濕度、降水日數、降水量及日照時數資料，透過統計分析方法實證零售業銷售表現與氣候之間的關聯性。實證結果發現，天氣變化確實會影響零售業的銷售表現，透過迴歸分析得知：平均氣溫、降水日數、平均相對溼度及日照時數之變化皆對零售業的銷售額具有顯著影響。

關鍵字

天氣；零售業；消費者；消費行為

並列摘要

Weather is closely related to human life. Changes in weather affect human physiological and psychological reactions, and also affect human economic behavior and consumption activities. Weather plays an important role in human economic activities. Weather not only determines human life, but also affects consumers’ consumption habits. People have gradually put attention on "Meteorological Economics" in recent years, because weather changes affect economic development. If we can obtain climate information, we can prevent and take actions to reduce the disaster loss caused by climate change or make use of it. The purpose of this research is to explore the relationship between retail sales and weather changes, and the extent to which weather changes affect retail sales. This research collects retail sales data of Taiwan’s department stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sales from 1999 to 2019, as well as Taiwan’s monthly average temperature, average relative humidity, precipitation, precipitation days and duration of sunshine during the same period. Through statistical analysis methods to demonstrate the correlation between retail sales performance and climate. The empirical results found that weather changes do affect the sales performance of the retail industry. Through regression analysis, we know that changes in average temperature, precipitation days, average relative humidity and duration of sunshine all have a significant impact on retail sales.