本研究主要是探討匯率與銀行獲利之關係,根據金管會分類將台灣的銀行業分為本國銀行、外國銀行並將本國銀行中屬於金融控股公司中的銀行列為金控銀行加以分析。資料來源為台灣經濟新報資料庫(TEJ),研究期間自2003年第一季至2009年第四季。其中,以代表銀行獲利的重要指標—資產報酬率(ROA)及股東權益報酬率(ROE)做為本研究之獲利指標,並採用Granger 因果關係檢定加以檢定新台幣兌換美元匯率與銀行獲利是否具有影響。 依實證結果顯示,即使匯率升貶在一個營業日當中就可能會有極大的落差,但對銀行而言獲利是由各項業務累積而成。若非以外匯為主要經營業務之銀行,較難分析出匯率與獲利間之直接關係。因此,本研究認為匯率的升貶與台灣銀行業整體獲利並沒有顯著之影響,對於積極擴展海外據點的銀行業,此結論可做為台灣銀行業至海外擴展據點之參考。
This study mainly discusses the relationship between exchange rate and the bank profitability. According to its nature, Taiwan banking industry divides into domestic banks, foreign banks and financial holding banks. The material is from Taiwan Economic Journal Co., Ltd., and the research period is from 2003 to 2009. Among them, the important indexes of bank profit - Return On Asset (ROA) and Return On Equity (ROE) are the variables in this study, which uses the Granger causality test to analyze whether the exchange rate and profitability of bank have correlation or not. The exchange rate has the possibility to have enormous dropping variance in one business day; however the profitability of the bank is accumulated by every banking practices. If banks do not take the foreign exchange trading as primary service, it would be difficult to analyze the direct relations of the exchange rate and the profitability. Therefore, this study thinks that the exchange rate and Taiwan's bank profitability have no remarkable influence. This conclusion may be the reference for Taiwan banking industry which actively expands overseas footholds.