近年來臺灣地方政府財政赤字面臨惡化之際,各地方政府希望透過中央政府增加對地方政府之補助或修正財政收支劃分法將財源下放地方政府來解決地方政府財政之問題,Carroll(2005)以美國州政府為例,認為稅收愈多元化的州政府愈能穩定州政府的歲入,能有效降低財政危機之發生。因此本文建立稅收多元化指標(Revenue Diversification Index)之方式,探討稅收多元化指標與地方財政赤字之關係,即分析台灣各地方政府自籌財源中之自有稅課收入之多元化程度是否能替地方政府帶來穩定之收入,進而降低地方財政赤字。本文第一階段以Suyderhoud(1994)所提出之「多元指標」(Diversification Index)建立臺灣地方政府2001年至2012年之稅收多元化指標,第二階段則以稅收多元化指標之值,建構台灣地方政府2001年至2012年追蹤資料(Panel Data)之固定效果模型,並分析地方政府稅收多元化程度與地方財政赤字之關係。 本研究結果指出,地方政府稅收多元化指標、各縣市平均每人實質所得成長率、失業率及地方政府規模與地方財政赤字具有顯著且正向之影響;各縣市經濟敏感程度與地方財政赤字具有顯著且負向之影響。綜上所述,當地方政府面臨財政赤字時,無法透過地方政府自有稅課收入之多元性及穩定性來降低地方財政赤字。
In this paper we aims to analyze the tax revenue diversification of local government and local government deficits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2012.We examine the effects of local government deficits on tax revenue diversification of local government and tax for aid distribution of local government. We also conduct panel data approach with fixed effects and the tax revenue diversification index to analyze the relationship between local government deficits and tax revenue diversification index of local government. The tax revenue diversification index was modified from Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI)The HHI index was allowed to measure the level of local governments tax revenue diversification during the year of 2001-2012. The research findings are as follow:(1)There is a positive significant correlation between the tax revenue diversification index of local government and local government deficits;(2) There is a negative significant relationship between the general centrally-funded tax revenues of local government and local government deficits.