政府主要財政收入來源為賦稅收入,而居高不下的欠稅,影響國家財政甚鉅,在開發新稅源或稅目有其困難下,不如對於現有之租稅債權著手,除能健全國家財政,亦能維護租稅公平。了解影響欠稅原因及預估欠稅率之高低,除可助於政府在財政上之管理,亦能提供政府編製歲入預算或推動財經政策之參考。 本研究針對94年至101年之使用牌照稅、房屋稅及地價稅等地方稅稅目之欠稅比率資料以自我迴歸整合模型進行預測及與平均每戶可支配所得、經濟成長率、失業率、租稅負擔率相關變數進行因果檢定之研究。經由時間序列分析及因果關係檢定,結果歸納如下: 一、使用牌照稅欠稅率及地價稅欠稅率之預測效果較房屋稅欠稅率之預測效果為佳。 二、平均每戶可支配所得會影響使用牌照稅欠稅率及房屋稅欠稅率;房屋稅欠稅率會影響失業率。 三、使用牌照稅、房屋稅、地價稅等稅目之欠稅率與經濟成長率、租稅負擔率無因果關係。
The government main finance income of the fiscal revenues is tax revenues. High tax delinquency influence government finance. It is more like working existing tax loans than developing new tax source and tax denominations. It can not also improve government finance, but also maintain tax justice. To understand the influence reason of tax delinquency can help government administer the finance, and provide government reference of making real revenues budget and promoting finance policies. This Research analyzes the trend of local tax delinquency rates of vehicle license tax, house tax, land value tax from 2005 to 2012 and does a forecast by autoregressive integration model. This Research also analyzes correlated variables of each house average disposable income, economic growth rate, unemployment rate, tax burden rate by time series analysis method and Granger Causality Test. The result as this research are as follows: First, the vehicle license tax delinquency rate and the land value tax delinquency rate have better predictable effects than the house tax delinquency rate. Second, each house average disposable income affects the vehicle license tax delinquency rate and the house tax delinquency rate. The house tax delinquency rate affects the unemployment rate. Last, the tax delinquency rates of vehicle license tax, house tax, land value tax have no causation relationship among the economic growth rate and the tax burden rate.