兩岸直航出發機場及航線選擇模式

Modelling the joint choice behavior of airport and route for cross-strait direct flights

許均宴(Chun-Yan Hsu)

指導教授 ： 楊志文

國立臺中科技大學/資訊與流通學院/流通管理系碩士班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究以敘述性偏好數據建構的巢式羅吉特模式，探討機場及航線聯合選擇模式。實證對象為受訪者從台灣桃園機場或松山機場出發至上海之非團體旅遊旅客。先從單一維度機場和航線分別估計，進而使用聯合選擇模式探討。聯合選擇模式為兩階層，先選出發機場，再擇訖點機場。從估計結果顯示，高所得旅客偏好松山機場快速通關服務；常飛往上海地區的商務旅客偏好可提供較多班次之航線。彈性分析部份，接駁時間和費用改善可提高其選擇率；在本研究中會影響旅客的選擇因素，機票票價比飛行時間重要，松山虹橋航線變動會影響桃園虹橋航線，而在桃園機場層內則互相影響大。政策模擬票價調降一成，以松山虹橋航線最有成效。最後結果發現，虛擬桃園虹橋航線位居四條航線市佔率的第二位，此條航線對於飛往上海旅客，有其潛在需求。

關鍵字

機場及航線聯合選擇 ； 敘述性偏好 ； 巢式羅吉特 ； 彈性分析 ； 政策模擬

並列摘要

Proceeding from nested multinomial Logit model of stated preference data construction, this research discusses the model of combined selection of airports and airlines. Its experimental subjects are individual tourists departing from Taoyuan or Songshan Airport in Taiwan for Shanghai in the Mainland of China. At first this research makes estimations about the airport and airline respectively from a single dimensionality, and then uses the combined selection model for further discussion. The combined selection model can be separated into two stages: first choosing the departing airport, and then choosing the destination airport. Results of estimation show that tourists with high incomes prefer the rapid custom clearance services of Songshan airport, while business tourists visiting Shanghai frequently favorite airlines that provide more flights. According to the elasticity analysis, improvement of transship time and cost can provide more options for passengers; among factors that may influence passengers’ choices in this research, air fare plays a more important role than does flight time. Exactly because of this reason, the change of Songshan-Hongqiao airline will influence the Taoyuan-Hongqiao airline, though in Taoyuan Airport, the air fare and flight time equally influence each other. The 10% reduction of air fare in policy simulation will most significantly influence Songshan-Hongqiao airline. Final results indicate that the virtual Taoyuan-Hongqiao airline takes the second place among four airlines, which can meet the potential needs of tourists visiting Shanghai frequently.

並列關鍵字

joint choice of airport and route ； stated preference ； nested multinomial Logit model ； elasticity analysis ； policy simulation

參考文獻

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