聯合城際運輸與艙等服務之運具選擇模式

Modeling the joint choice behavior of intercity transport mode and cabin class

袁紹峰(Shao-Feng Yuen)

指導教授 ： 楊志文

國立臺中科技大學/商管學群/流通管理系碩士班/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6826/NUTC.2009.00045

摘要

過去旅運研究多以單一選擇維度架構下，分析得到的資訊有限，本文則以多重選擇維度架構，建立聯合選擇模式，以呈現較完善之旅運需求模式。本研究蒐集台灣西部長程城際運輸旅客偏好資料，建立城際運輸選擇與艙等選擇之聯合選擇模式，探討選擇維度間與選擇維度內之關係；以及建立高鐵艙等整合模式，分析旅客的潛在選擇行為。

在聯合選擇模式中，利用顯示性偏好資料，以巢式羅吉特模式進行校估。研究結果發現，在旅客認知下，高鐵標準座與自由座具高度相似性；旅客會依據個人社經特性對總旅行成本與時間有不同偏好，高所得者較重視總旅行時間，低所得者較重視旅行成本。旅次及社經特性如同行人數、職業、汽車持有等變數會影響城際運輸與艙等服務的選擇行為。從彈性分析與市場定位圖分析中得知，汽車在總旅行成本與總旅行時間皆具有競爭優勢。

另外，在高鐵艙等整合模式中，使用顯示性偏好與敘述性偏好資料。其結果顯示艙等屬性、旅次特性與社經特性皆會影響高鐵艙等選擇行為。其中標準座與自由座的折扣比例變數，為旅客選擇艙等之重要心理因素。從策略模擬得知，旅行成本對於標準座與自由座市佔率有明顯影響。

關鍵字

運具選擇,艙等選擇,敘述性偏好,多重選擇維度,巢式羅吉特模式

並列摘要

The previous studies of traveling choice behavior with single choice dimension can not investigate the relationships between modes and class services. Hence, this study adapts a multi-dimensions framework to modeling the joint choice behavior of mode and class services. The empirical data is focus on long-distance intercity traveling in Taiwan western corridor. Then, a joint choice model for intercity mode and class, and a class choice model of high-speed rail (HSR) with combining revealed and stated preference are constructed to discuss the relationships between choice dimensions and class services.

The joint choice model is estimated by nested logit model through revealed preference data. The results showed that there are a high substitutive relationship between standard class and non-reserved class of HSR. The coefficients of traveling time and cost are varied across travelers’ soc-economic characteristics. Travelers with higher income take more consideration on traveling time, while those travelers with lower income thought traveling costs are the most important attribute. Other relevant trip and soc-economical characteristics, as fellow travelers, occupation, and possession of car, also have significant influences on joint choice model of mode and class service. From the analysis of elasticity and positioning map, this study find that the car alternative has the better competition advantages on traveling cost and time.

In addition, the class choice model for HSR mode with combining revealed and stated preference data indicated that class attribute, trip characters and soc-economical characters influence HSR class choice behaviors significantly. The discount ratio of standard and non-reserved class is the important psychological factor affecting travelers’ choice behavior. The results of strategic simulation show that travel cost can effect the considerable changes of market shares on both class services.

並列關鍵字

Mode Choice, Class Choice, Revealed Preference, Multiple-Choice Dimensions, Nested Logit Model

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