以Logit模式探討東部地區貨物低碳運輸之可行性分析

An application of logit model on the feasibility of low-carbon freight transport in the eastern region of Taiwan

蕭百容(Po-Jung Hsiao)

指導教授 ： 顏憶茹

國立臺中科技大學/資訊與流通學院/流通管理系碩士班/碩士(2013年)

摘要

近年來低碳運輸已成為全球發展趨勢。在東部蘇花公路為聯繫東部至北部的重要交通要道，平均每日貨運交通量比例高達19%，負載量相對大，也因此造成用路安全性、空氣污染氣體排放、道路養護成本高，本研究考量東部地區公路運輸安全與環境永續責任等諸多因素，提出貨物低碳運輸之可行方案，提供政府協助花東地區之貨物運輸可達減少碳排放量之推動方向建議參考。
本研究採用交通部運輸研究所「東部地區貨物以低碳運具運輸之可能模式與可行性分析－以鐵路運輸及海運為例」計畫案之問卷資料，經由Logit模式探討東部地區貨物低碳運具之選擇行為，依據運具選擇結果最佳模式之效用函數推導出各運具之選擇機率，搭配計劃案之2015年預測運量之相關資料，及交通部能源局、環境保護局等網站、國內外文獻所蒐集二氧化碳排放量之相關資料，最後政策擬定東部地區貨物以鐵路及海運低碳運輸之可行性分析。
本研究針對運具選擇結果提出假設雪山隧道與蘇花公路可通行、蘇花改通行(公路)、增設鐵路專列(鐵路)、駛上駛下RORO船(海運)、結合鐵路與海運政策、結合公路與海運政策、結合公路、鐵路、海運政策等7個可行之低碳政策，若以減碳效益面來看，以結合公路、鐵路、海運政策減碳效益最高，可減少3,588噸。若以貨幣效益面來看則是駛上駛下RORO船貨幣成本減少13,466,365元最多。若以執行面難易度來看，則是公路執行容易，其次為海運、鐵路，而多運具聯運執行困難度較高。

關鍵字

低碳運輸 ； 東部地區產業與運輸概況 ； 貨運 ； Logit模式

並列摘要

In recent years, low-carbon transport has become a global trend. Suhua Highway is a major traffic way connecting the eastern and northern regions of Taiwan. Of its daily traffic, the volume of freight transport on average accounts for 19%, a relatively large load. The problems of road safety, gas emissions causing air pollution, and high road maintenance costs therefore arise. By considering the road transport safety and environmental sustainability responsibility as well as many other factors, this study proposed a feasible model about low-carbon transport in the eastern region.
This study adopts the data collected by the Institute of Transportation, MOTC in 2011 for the project “The probable model and feasibility analysis of low-carbon freight transport in the eastern region-An example of railway and marine transit.” This study uses the logit model to explore the choice behavior for low-carbon transportation tools in the eastern region of Taiwan. The probability of using a certain tool is calculated based on the logit model analysis. This study also incorporates the data on the predicted freight volume in 2015, and the data on CO2 emission from the Bureau of Energy, the Environmental Protection Bureau, and related literature.
According to the modal choice result, this study proposes seven feasible low-carbon policies: going through hypothesized Hsuehshan Tunnel and Suhua Highway, going through Suhua Improvement (highway), additional rail train (railway), Roll On/Roll Off Ferry (sea), combining railway and marine transit policy, combining road and marine transit policy, and combining road, rail, and marine transit policy. Evaluated on carbon reduction efficiency, the policy of combining road, rail and marine transit is the most effective, able to reduce 3,588 tons of carbon. On the other hand, if the benefits of monetary value are gauged, the Roll On/Roll Off Ferry (sea) is the most effective, able to reduce NT$13,466,365. Finally, with respect to the easiness of enforcement, highway is the easiest to enforce, followed by sea and rail. The policy of combining road, rail and marine transit is the most difficult to enforce.

並列關鍵字

Low carbon transport ； Industry and transport in the eastern region of Taiwan ； Freight transport ； Logit model

參考文獻

林幸君、高慈敏（民97）。蘇花國道興建期及通車後之區域經濟效果分析。台灣經濟預測與政策。第38卷，第二期，頁31-72。

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