影響購置住宅貸款違約逾期之因素分析

金融環境之穩定發展直接影響國家競爭力，金融監理機關為監理金融體系健全並穩定經營，進而保障存款人的資金安全，對銀行業風險管理之相關檢查要求有不少規範以預防金融危機發生。本國銀行經營主要獲利來源項目以利息淨收益占總收益比逾 50%以上，故當逾期放款總額增加，勢必影響本國銀行經營獲利。2018.6.21金管會公布同年5月底止全國購置住宅貸款餘額為 6.7兆元、逾放金額 172億元、逾放比率 0.26%，針對全國購置住宅貸款逾放金額及比率是自 2012年來新高。過去多位學者研究發現，貸款發生違約逾期的原因，與借款人的「償還條件」有顯著關聯，但對「房價所得比」之探討卻非常有限。對購屋意願強大負擔能力較弱的購屋者，該購屋需要者面對偏高的房價所得比，在購屋後是否因擁有房地所有權，卻受限於所得而需獲得金融業更多貸款金額，導致提高購屋貸款成數後，背負沉重的房貸繳償金額，使償還能力相對下降？近年透過各房產業、仲介業及政府相關統計數據發現，都已漸漸注意到房價所得比此變項的重要，故本研究以房價所得比對購置住宅貸款發生違約逾期之相關性進行分析與探討。本研究資料來源為某商業銀行台中地區各分行自2012年起至2017年所辦理購置住宅貸款案件，分層隨機抽樣購置標的物座落於台中地區，以合併前舊台中市及舊台中縣為區分，每一年度抽樣 30件個案，總計共180件個案，作為研究對象，以卡方檢定及二元羅吉斯迴歸模型進一步探討與分析影響購置住宅貸款違約逾期之因素。研究結果發現：1. 「房價所得比」對繳納狀況有顯著相關性。2.過去部分學者研究結果對屋齡、年所得、信用卡循環紀錄都有顯著相關性，本研究實證確實具顯著性。3.過去研究認為工作年資及寬限期會影響繳納狀況，但本實證結果顯示其影響力並不明顯，期待未來學者以此二變項進一步探討及確認。

關鍵字

購置住宅貸款；逾期放款；房價所得比；購屋負擔能力；卡方檢定；羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

Given that a strong moving financial environment has a direct effect on a nation's competitiveness and economic development. With the aim of ensuring the viability and stability in the financial system, and also secure depositors' saving, financial supervision agency has strict regulations on risk management in the banking industry to prevent financial crises from happening. The main source of profit for domestic banks comes from net interest income, which takes up to 50% in gross profit. Therefore, when the amount of non-performing loans (NPL) increases it's bound to influence the profit gain in domestic banks. On June 21st, 2018, a financial disclosure made by Financial Supervisory Commission stated that (a) The balance of the national residential mortgage was $6.7 trillion, (b) The amount of NPL was $172 billion, and (c) The NPL ratio was 0.26%. The numbers had hit a record-high since 2012. Previous studies have reported significance in relationships between repayment condition and NPL. But there has been little discussion about the effect of housing price-to-income ratio. When reviewing mortgage applications financial institutions often focus on collateral conditions. However, applicants with strong buying intention but insufficient affordability, therefore, face higher housing price-to-income ratio. By obtaining the property ownership, those applicants apply for more loans from the bank in order to support the mortgage payment. Increasing loan burden, eventually resulted in decreasing debt-paying ability. Recent evidence has shown the importance of housing price-to-income ratio, raising awareness in the government and the housing industry. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between housing price-to-income ratio and residential mortgage defaults. Research data used in this study were derived from house loan cases executed by branches of a commercial bank in Taichung during the period from 2012 to 2017. Stratified random sampling was conducted for such houses purchased located in Taichung. 30 cases were selected for each year in old Taichung City and old Taichung Country before combination, i.e., 180 cases in total, as research objects. Factors affecting default and overdue payment of housing loans were further discussed and analyzed through Chi-square Test and Binary Logistic Regression Model. Findings of this study are as follows: 1) There are limited researches on price-to-income ratio in the past, and empirical analysis results of this study show a significant correlation between price-to-income ratio and payment of loans; 2) Results of certain prior researches show significant correlation among age of house, annual income, and credit card repayment records, exactly as demonstrated in this study; and 3) Insignificant correlation between years of working, period of grace and payment status is supposed to be observed; it is expected that scholars may conduct further discussion and confirmation based on such two variables in future researches.