臺灣國防的威脅及因應之道－以北斗衛星導航系統為例

中國(以下稱中共)在2020年3月9日成功將北斗導航系統中的第54顆衛星發射升空，完成了北斗三號的全球部署任務，其數量也超越美國的GPS(Global Positioning System)導航系統並成為全球自主完成導航系統建置的國家，同時也是數量最多的一個系統。因此，本研究目的為探討當前中共以北斗衛星的特性對未來欲實施軍事犯臺所造成影響之因素，這其中包括封鎖與轟炸以及兩棲登陸行動等兩個階段，而本研究方法採質化研究，資料分析係依據扎根理論進行分析，邀集三位具相關背景與專業知識學者參與研究，並綜合分析與歸納訪談內容後，透過觀察與研究者省思所提出研究結論：一、瞭解國軍當前遇到的軍事威脅；從中共軍隊裝備部署、編制到歷年來演訓和對臺的威嚇手段以及曾經發生的威脅行動。二、探究北斗衛星導航系統之現況；發展概述、運作模式、特(弱)點分析以及軍事運用等方面做探討。三、未來國軍未來面對北斗衛星威脅的因應之道；透過封鎖與轟炸、兩棲登陸等兩個階段以及數位電磁攻擊、海上封鎖、飛彈轟炸、武裝直昇機滲透突擊以及大規模船團等五個進程做探討。經過以上研究發現，在未來建議人員的部分可以培植更多專業人才與提升官兵對中共太空科技(北斗衛星導航系統)的認知，並且針對導航系統的地面導控站列入主要破壞與摧毀的目標之一，最後則可採用手段多元及設施多樣的干擾裝置運用不對稱作戰思維抗衡中共北斗導航系統在軍事用途上的企圖。

關鍵字

北斗衛星導航系統；封鎖與轟炸；兩棲登陸

並列摘要

China, as it launched its 54th satellite of the BeiDou navigation system on March 9, 2020, completed the global deployment of BeiDou-3, whose number of satellites has surpassed that of the United States’ global positioning system for navigation. Since then, China has become the first country worldwide to construct a navigation system independently, which has the most satellites among all. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the characteristics of China’s BeiDou satellites that affect its future military invasion to Taiwan. Such invasion comprises two stages: blockade and bombing, and amphibious landing operations. This study employed a qualitative design and analyzed data on the basis of the grounded theory; invited three scholars with relevant background and professional expertise in this field to participate in the research process; and conducted a metaanalysis of and summarized the interview data. After observation and reflection on the research results, the authors drew the following conclusions: 1. Identify military threats currently facing the Taiwanese armed forces: threat tactics and threat operations taken by the Chinese armed forces—from their equipment deployment, formation, to the military exercises over the years—against Taiwan. 2. Explore the current situation of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System: development overview,operational model, analysis on its features and weaknesses, and discussion on its military applications. 3. Discuss possible countermeasures for the Taiwanese armed forces against threats from the BeiDou satellites: two stages of military operations (i.e., blockade and bombing, and amphibious landing) and the following five progressive steps: digital electromagnetic attacks, sea blockade, missile bombing, penetration attacks through armed helicopters, and large-scale afloat prepositioning force. According to these research findings, the authors recommend that the Taiwanese armed forces cultivate more specialized talent and enhance military officers’ and soldiers’ understanding of China’s space technology (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System), list the navigation system’s ground control station to be a target of damage and destruction, and employ diverse tactics and jammers to—through asymmetric warfare—counterweigh China’s ambitious military applications of the BeiDou navigation system.