應用灰關聯分析探討台灣各年齡層失業率影響因素之研究

A Study of the Factors Influencing the Unemployment Rate Among All Ages in Taiwan by Using Grey Relational Analysis

張伊婷(Yi-Ting Chang)

指導教授 ： 陳俊益

義守大學/管理學院/工業管理學系/碩士(2016年)

摘要

影響失業率的因素有很多種，其範圍非常廣泛，然而，一般研究影響失業率的文獻，大多關注於全面性地對失業率影響因素進行探討與著墨，較少將失業率依年齡別區分，實際上，各年齡層失業率之影響因素可能不盡相同，亦即並非各年齡層的失業率皆受到同一因素之影響。因此，本研究將失業率依年齡別進行分類，並以2001年至2014年間的11項影響因素為主軸進行探討，透過灰關聯分析方法，試圖找出影響整體失業率與各年齡層失業率之因素與關聯程度。
根據研究結果顯示，除了65歲以上失業率外，共有5項因素(包含平均失業週數、平均薪資結構、匯率、消費者物價指數以及外勞核准引進人數)對整體失業率及其他三大類(15-24歲、25-44歲和45-64歲)失業率有較顯著之影響，只不過影響的程度略有差異，其中又以平均失業週數和平均薪資結構影響程度最大；而出口總值、經濟成長率、景氣同時指標綜合指數、國內生產毛額及國民所得對65歲以上失業率有較為顯著之影響。
進一步研究11個影響因素間之關聯性，以國內生產毛額最為重要，換言之，國內生產毛額為最主要的影響因素，影響著其他10個因素，而從量化排序中可知，國民所得受其影響最大，其次為經濟成長率，而平均失業週數受其影響最小。此外，若將經濟成長率排除，僅探討10個影響因素間之關聯性，仍以國內生產毛額最為重要，國民所得受其影響最大，其次為消費者物價指數，而受其影響最小仍為平均失業週數。

關鍵字

失業率 ； 年齡層 ； 灰關聯分析

並列摘要

There are many factors affecting unemployment which are the consequence of many economic activities. In previous studies, the research topics are focusing on the total effect on the unemployment at all ages. In the matter of facts, different age will be affected by different factors. Therefore, in this research, we classify different age level as 15~24 years, 25~44 years, 45~64 years and 65 years above. The statistics which are published on the government website are GDP, NI, economic growth rate, consumer price index, allowed mainland china investment, total export value, currency, average unemployment weeks, average salary structure, number of verified foreign labor and economic status concurrent indicator complex index. In this research, the grey relational analysis was applied to explore the effect of economic index on the total unemployment rate and unemployment rate in different ages.
According to research results, besides the unemployment rate of over 65 years, there are 5 factors which have the significant impact to the overall unemployment rate and other three age categories (15~24 year old, 25~44 year old and 45~64 years old), including average unemployment weeks, average wages structure, exchange rate, Consumer Price Index, and number of foreign labor, affects the degree has the difference slightly, and impact of maximum are average unemployment weeks and average wages structure. there are 5 factors have the significant impact to the unemployment rate of over 65 years, including Export value, Economic Growth Rate, economy coincident index, GDP and NI.
After grey relational analysis of above eleven factors, it shows that GDP dominates the labor affair among these eleven factors. NI has been the biggest influence, next is the economic growth rate, and average unemployment weeks has been the smallest influence. Exclude economic growth rate, after grey relational analysis of above ten factors, it shows that GDP dominates the labor affair among these eleven factors. NI has been the biggest influence, next is consumer price index and average unemployment weeks has been the smallest influence.

並列關鍵字

Grey relational analysis ； Ages ； Unemployment

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