歐肯法則(Okun's Law)－台灣實證研究

Okun's Law: Empirical Evidence in Taiwan

江靜儀(Ching-Yi Chiang)

《經濟論文》 34卷3期 (2006/09) Pp. 355-389

https://doi.org/10.29628/AEP.200609.0003

摘要

本文利用1961-1999之樣本期間來探討台灣之失業率與產出成長率間之歐肯關係是否成立。實證結果指出歐肯關係存在，且此一結果不受不同模型設定的影響。此外，實證結果亦指出除失業率外，資本生產力與勞動力的變化對產出成長亦有影響，遺漏此二變數將高估失業對產出的影響效果。然而，不同模型所估計的歐肯係數值不盡相同，在一階差分模型中，歐肯係數之估計值為-2.1，然此一模型不具結構穩定性。在應用Beveridge-Nelson與Hodrick-Prescott分解法之缺口模型中，歐肯係數之估計值則分別為-7.0與-5.2，且模型具結構穩定性，同時未發現失業率對產出成長的影響具不對稱性。

關鍵字

歐肯法則 ； 失業率 ； 景氣循環

並列摘要

This paper examines the validity of Okun's law in Taiwan during 1961 to 1999. Using three detrending methods (first differencing, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition procedure and the Hodrick-Prescott filter) to decompose variables, we find that there exists a negative relationship between the cyclical output growth and the cyclical unemployment rate. In addition to changes in unemployment rate, changes in capital productivity and labor force are also important variables in explaining changes in output growth; omission of the two variables would cause the estimates of the Okun coefficient to be upwardly biased. Estimates of the Okun coefficient and the stability of Okun's relationship are sensitive to the trend/cycle decomposition. In the first-difference model, the estimate is -2.1 and Okun's relationship is unstable. In the BN and HP model, the estimates are -7.0 and -5.2, respectively, and both models exhibit stability; there is no asymmetric effect of the unemployment rate on output growth.

並列關鍵字

Okun's law ； Unemployment ； Business cycle

參考文獻

邱哲修、邱建良、李命志(1999)。貨幣政策對產出之不對稱效果－台灣實證研究。財稅研究。31，76-84。

劉克智、董安琪(2001)。台灣勞動市場與失業問題。自由中國之工業。91，1-40。

蔡佳玲(2004)。台灣景氣循環特性之實證研究(碩士論文)。銘傳大學經濟學研究所。

Adams, C.,D. T. Coe(1990).A System Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States.IMF Staff Papers.37,232-293.

Altig, D.,T. Fitzgerald,P. Rupert(1997).Okun's Law Revisited: Should We Worry about Low Unemployment?.Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary.15,1-4.