國際貿易、資訊通訊技術、金融發展與經濟自由化對經濟成長之影響

本研究旨在研究分析國際貿易、資訊及通訊科技或資訊通訊技術(Information and Communications Technology，簡稱ICT)成長、金融發展以及經濟自由化指數，其對於經濟成長會產生何種影響效果。本研究的實證模型除了同時考量金融發展、ICT發展與經濟成長等變數之外，還將納入國際貿易與經濟自由化指數於模型中，經濟自由化指數將採用美國傳統基金會資料庫(Heritage Database)之自由化指標，計量方法則將採用Arellano and Bover (1995)的系統性動差估計法(System Generalized Method of Moments Estimator, 簡稱 SGMM)。本研究的實證資料為年資料。樣本國家數為39國，樣本資料為2000年至2018年共19年的追蹤資料。此外，除了進行全樣本的估計分析外，本文也將全樣本分成兩個不同所得群組進行實證估計與分析。本研究結果得出: 在基本模型中，就ICT發展兩變數來看，對於高與中高所得國家(群組A)而言，網路對經濟成長會有明顯的負向影響效果，對中低與低所得國家(群組B)有行動裝置對經濟成長的正向影響效果顯著不定。廣義貨幣/GDP(BM)與經濟自由化綜合指數(OS)之交乘項(BM*OS)有顯著的正向影響效果，顯示此兩變數產生交互影響的間接效果，進而對於經濟成長產生負面影響效果。在進階模型中，對於高與中高所得國家(群組A)之經濟成長而言私營部門的國內信貸/GDP(DCPS)會有正效果和廣義貨幣/GDP(BM)會有正效果但不顯著，中低與低所得國家(群組B)則相反。建議各國的政策決策者，建立一有利於能促進手機等行動裝置使用的環境，此將能有利於一國的經濟成長。

關鍵字

國際貿易； ICT成長；金融發展；經濟自由化指數；經濟成長

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of international trade, Information and Communications Technology (ICT) growth, financial development, and the economic freedom on economic growth. The empirical model of this study will include the variables such as financial development, ICT development and economic growth. It will also be included in the model of international trade and economic freedom index. The economic freedom index will be used the data of the Heritage Database. The measurement method will be used the System Generalized Method of Moments Estimator (referred to as SGMM) of Arellano and Bover (1995). The empirical data for this study will be shown annual data. The number of samples are 39 countries, and the sample data are tracking data from 2000 to 2018. In addition, this article not only to the full sample estimation analysis but also divides the full sample into two different income groups for empirical estimation and analysis. The results of this study: In the basic model, in terms of the two variables of ICT development, for high-, medium-, and high-income countries (group A), the Internet will have a significant negative effect on economic growth, The positive effects of having mobile devices on low-income countries (Group B) on economic growth are significant. The crossover term (BM * OS) of the broad currency / GDP (BM) and the economic liberalization composite index (OS) has a significant positive effect, showing the indirect effect of the interactive effects of these two variables, which in turn has a negative effect on economic growth influential impact. In the advanced model, the domestic credit / GDP (DCPS) of the private sector will have a positive effect on the economic growth of high-, middle-, and high-income countries (group A) and the broad money / GDP (BM) will have a positive effect but not Significantly, the low-middle and low-income countries (Group B) are the opposite. It is recommended that policy makers in each country establish an environment conducive to the use of mobile devices such as mobile phones, which will be conducive to a country's economic growth.