摘要
影響經濟發展之原因為何，一直是眾多學者致力研究的議題，然其方向大多為窮究影響經濟發展的變數，以利預測未來經濟趨勢。本研究嘗試以另一種觀點來研究經濟發展的議題，即著眼在有無社會現象或趨勢能表現甚至預測經濟發展的走向。依此研究方向發現，原德意志銀行研究總監安德魯．勞倫斯 (Andrew Lawrence) 於1999年1月首度提出「摩天大樓詛咒」的理論。他的理論概念是，經濟的衰退或股市的蕭條往往都發生在新摩天大樓落成時間點的前後。簡言之，大樓落成時，即是經濟衰退日。故有人稱它為「勞倫斯詛咒」或「摩天大樓詛咒」。 摩天大樓詛咒意指:摩天大樓一般均蓋在一個地區的精華地段，土地取得成本高，設計與興建費用均所費不貲，所以摩天大樓大多會興建在一國經濟景氣極佳，甚至過度樂觀，而泡沫經濟現象即將發生的期間。因此，摩天大樓的動工便成為一國泡沫經濟的前兆，隨著摩天大樓的動工，一國經濟將可能轉趨衰退。 因此，本研究的假說主軸:如果摩天大樓動工期間的相關經濟數據優於摩天大樓落成期間之經濟數據，則可驗證摩天大樓詛咒是成立的。 實證結果發現，摩天大樓動工期間的金融面數據，包括「股價指數」與「貨幣寬鬆程度」，並沒有顯著優於落成期間之經濟數據；然而，動工期間的實質面數據，包括「經濟成長率」與「失業率」，顯著優於摩天大樓落成期間之經濟數據，且其中又以實質面的「經濟成長率」驗證出來的成功率最高，高達84%。本研究的結論是:摩天大樓詛咒在實質面的經濟數據之驗證是成立的，換句話說，隨著摩天大樓的動工，經濟成長率將降低，而失業率將提高，而且，實質面經濟景氣逐步衰退的現象將會發生。
並列摘要
What impacts the economic development has been the topic many scholars were committed to researching. However, for the purpose of predicting future economic trends, they aimed the direction of their researches mostly at the variables which influence the economic development. This research attempts to study the issue of economic development from another points of view, namely, looking at whether there are social phenomena and trends which are able to present or even predict the trends of the economic development. It is found in this study that in January, 1999, Andrew Lawrence , the Deutsche Bank research director, first proposed the argument of "the Skyscraper Curse". His theoretical concept is that the economic recession and stock market slump tend to occur at the time points before and after the completion of the new tall buildings. In short, the completion of those buildings is believed to be the day of the business recession. Therefore, it is called "the Lawrence Curse" or "the Skyscraper Curse". "The skyscraper Curse" means: a skyscraper is usually built in the most prosperous lot where the cost of land acquisition is high and the design and the construction also cost a lot, so most of them will be built during a period when a country's economy is booming, or even over-optimistic, but in the meanwhile the economic bubble is coming up. Therefore the start of a skyscraper means a country's economy has a tendency to foam. With the start of a skyscraper, a country's economy will likely begin to decline. Therefore, the key hypothesis of this study is this: if the relevant economic data during the construction period of a skyscraper are superior to those during the completion period of that building, the skyscraper curse could be confirmed. Empirical results are found as follows: The financial data during the construction period of the skyscrapers, including the "stock index" and the "degree of the monetary easing" are not significantly better than the economic data during the completion period of the buildings. However, the real substantial data, including the "economic growth rates" and the "unemployment rates" are obviously better than the economic data during the completion period of the buildings. Among those data, "the economic growth rates" are verified to have the highest success rates, up to 84%. It could be concluded that the skyscraper curse, verified from the economic data in the real substantial aspect, is true; that is, after the start of the skyscrapers, the economic growth rates will be reduced and the unemployment rates will increase, and in turn, with the start of the skyscrapers, the economic boom will gradually decline in the real substantial aspect.