臺灣的失業率在2001年出現大幅度的攀升,在探討其背後的成因時, 國內的研究多集中在經濟面因素如:產業結構的變遷、國內外景氣的波動以 及資金外流,非經濟面因素如:核四停建與總統選舉爭議的探討則鮮少受到 關注。本文建立一複迴歸模型並利用1993至2007年的季資料針對上述經濟 面與非經濟面因素對於近期失業率波動所產生的影響進行分析,研究顯示: 一、產業購變遷無法有效地解釋失業率的波動。 二、國際景氣的衰退造成國內失業率大幅度攀升。 三、固定投資對於失業率的影響並不顯著。 四、對外國直接投資對於失業率的影響無法確定,赴大陸投資則有顯著的負 向影響。 五、核四停建對於失業率有顯著的正向影響,但總統選舉爭議則否。
Taiwan's unemployment rate had soared to the highest recorded level in 2001. Investigating the cause of the rising unemployment rate, most of the researches have focused on the economic factors: structural transformation, international or domestic business cycles, and capital outflow. However, the non-economic factors such as the abruptly terminated construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in 2000 and the dispute of the presidential election in 2004 are less emphasized in the recent literatures. This article establish a multiple regression model and investigate the seasonal data from 1993 to 2007. It shows that: 1. Structural transformation cannot effectively explain the fluctuation of recent unemployment rate. 2. International recession causes the rising unemployment rate. 3. The impact of the fixed investment is insignificant. 4. Direct investment to China is negatively related though direct investment to other countries is ambiguous. 5. The terminated construction of the nuclear power plant is positively related, however, the dispute of the presidential election is not.