我國公共工程預算與工期建立樂觀偏差基準值之可行性研究

A Feasibility Study on Developing Adjustment Mechanism for Budget and Work Duration Optimism Bias of Infrastructure Projects in Taiwan

林依頻(Yi-Pin Lin)

指導教授 ： 周慧瑜

朝陽科技大學/理工學院/營建工程系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

公共建設計畫的複雜化與大型化，使得技術面與管理面潛風險愈來愈多，公共工程專案能否順利達成預定工期、成本、品質乃至安衛環保之目標，困難度愈來愈高。英國政府為求更務實訂定公共建設計畫之預算與期程目標，同時能在招標與合約擬定時更加強公私部門間風險分攤的合理性與完整性，進而針對特定之高度風險事先採取必要之風險管理措施，於2003年由財政部納入了所謂「樂觀偏差（Optimism Bias，簡稱OB）」的修正制度，且此一制度已成為英國政府在為公共建設計畫選擇推動模式、訂定計畫目標與規劃風險管理策略時不可或缺的參考基準。國內公共工程專案工期與預算之訂定，長期以來並不具有合理性檢討之具體措施，也缺乏風險評估機制，因此本研究參考英國的制度概念，以公共工程標案管理系統的工程專案為例，經數據統計分析探討國內建立樂觀偏差調整機制之可能性，英國所謂的「前樂觀偏差(OB Pre)」，在台灣並不存在；但「後樂觀偏差(OB Post)」的部份則有仿效實施的可行性與實質意義，且可進一步納入台灣在預算訂定與採購制度上之特性，除了與英國作法相同，將結算金額與決標金額相比，再將結算金額與預算相比，並建議主辦機關在規劃階段也可以建立專案之風險登錄表(risk register)，可進行風險對樂觀偏差之貢獻度分析，本研究亦建議國內可參考英國在公共建設上所推動的「閘門檢核制度(The OGC Gateway Review)」，不僅可作為落實風險管理的重要手段，也可以在未來持續改善工期與預算訂定合理性之功效。

關鍵字

閘門檢核 ； 樂觀偏差 ； 風險管理

並列摘要

The complexity and growing scale of infrastructure projects creates more and more potential risks in terms of techniques and management. In this case, it is a greater challenge for infrastructure projects to achieve the expected schedule, cost, quality, and the goals of safety, health, and environmental protection smoothly. In order to determine the budget, schedule, and objectives of infrastructure projects in a better practical manner and to improve the reasonable and complete risk sharing between public and private sectors at the time of calling for tenders and making contracts, the HM Treasury of the U.K. introduced the concept of optimism bias (OB) in 2003 to take advanced necessary management measures to monitor high risk projects. Since then, OB has become an indispensable benchmark for the U.K. government to determine its promotion patterns, objectives, and risk management strategies when planning infrastructure projects. On the other hand, the establishment of domestic infrastructure project schedules and costs in Taiwan has neither practical measures of review nor mechanism of risk assessment for a long time. Therefore, this study is aimed at discussing and analyzing the possibility of establishing a domestic OB scheme based on the examples of the U.K. system and infrastructure engineering projects. The so-called OB Pre concept in the U.K. does not exist here. Nevertheless, it is possible and meaningful for the concept of OB Post to be included in domestic budget establishment and procurement scheme. In addition to adopting the same methods as the UK, The competent authority is suggested to compare the balance to the award of contract and the balance to the cost. Moreover, it may establish a risk register for projects to discover the contribution of risks to OB. On the other hand, it is advised to implement the same scheme of “OGC Gateway Review” as the U.K. to serve as an important means of risk management, schedule improvement, and budget establishment in the future.

並列關鍵字

risk management ； optimism bias ； gateway review

參考文獻

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