研發活動對盈餘持續性之影響

The Impact of R&D Activity for Earnings persistence

陳義平(Yi-Ping Chen)

指導教授 ： 呂明哲

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/會計所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

過去研究證實智慧資本與研發投資對企業未來獲利有正面的貢獻。本研究將盈餘分解為正常盈餘、研發費用化前剩餘盈餘及負的研發費用三個組成，並探討三個盈餘組成與未來盈餘之關係，另以Mishkin (1983)理性預期模型檢定市場對三個盈餘組成資訊之效率性。
實證研究期間為1988至2007年，樣本選擇為台灣上市櫃公司，總計有9712筆觀察值。實證結果顯示：（1）研發費用化前剩餘盈餘持續性最高，且顯著高於負的研發費用，說明控制當年度盈餘下，研發支出愈高有助於未來盈餘；（2）負的研發費用與未來四年之盈餘呈顯著正相關，說明控制當年度研發費用化前盈餘下，研發支出愈高對未來四年盈餘不利；（3）正常盈餘僅與未來三年之盈餘呈顯著正相關，說明控制當年度剩餘盈餘下，正常盈餘是無法持續至三年後的盈餘。
市場效率性檢定結果顯示市場過度反應三個盈餘組成與未來盈餘之關係，然而市場對負的研發費用與三年後盈餘之關係並無顯著偏高定價。另一方面，投資人認為研發支出無助於未來四年盈餘表現，但顯著地認為有利於未來第五年之盈餘表現。最後，由套利組合檢定結果亦呈現市場之無效率性，對三個盈餘組成偏高定價。

關鍵字

會計資訊不對稱 ； 錯誤定價 ； 盈餘持續性 ； 研發支出

並列摘要

Prior researches show that intellectual capitals and R&D investments contribute to firms’ future profitability. This study decomposes the earnings into normal earnings, residual earnings before R&D expensing, and negative R&D expense. Then the relationships between three components of current earnings and future earnings are discussed. Moreover, Mishkin (1983) framework is applied to test for market efficiency in reflecting three components of current earnings with respect to future earnings implications.
This empirical study covers the period from 1988 to 2007. Research sample includes the firms listed in TSE or OTC markets. Thus, sample size is 9712. Empirical results reveal that (1) the persistence of residual earnings before expensing is highest and significantly higher than that of negative R&D expense, indicating that after controlling for current earnings, R&D expenditures is helpful to future earnings; (2) the negative R&D expense is positively associated with future earnings during the four years significantly, indicating that after controlling for current earnings before R&D expensing, R&D expenditures is harmful to future earnings during the four years; (3) the normal earnings is merely positively associated with future earnings during the three years, indicating that after controlling for current residual earnings, normal earnings fails to persist to future earnings in three years.
The testing results of market efficiency reveal that market over-reflects the relationships between three components of current earnings and future earnings, however, do not significantly overprice negative R&D expense with respect to future earnings in three years. On the other hand, investors think that R&D expenditures fail to improve future earnings during the four years, but are helpful to future earnings in 5th year. Finally, the results of the hedge-portfolio test also support market inefficiency and overpricing three components of current earnings.

並列關鍵字

Accounting information asymmetry ； Earnings persistence ； R&D expenditure ； Mispricing

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