不確定條件下廢汽車拆解優選模式之建立

The optimal distmantling model of end life vehicles under uncertainty

許金鐘(Jin-Zhong Xu)

指導教授 ： 林宏嶽

朝陽科技大學/理工學院/環境工程與管理系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

廢汽車的許多部份有經濟價值，但也含有有害物質，若未適當地處理，將會對環境造成危害。為了解廢汽車拆解效益，本研究以臺灣所產生廢汽車為主要案例區域，以生命週期評估及廢汽車各零組件成本因素分析，探討在不同處理方式，對於環境衝擊與成本效益之影響外，並以蒙地卡羅方法，評估其不確定性分佈數據範圍。建立灰色系統規劃模式，來評估拆解不確定性之下的最佳策略，以達到對環境的影響最小化和經濟利益最大化之目標。根據分析結果顯示，由利潤最大化的角度，引擎、避震器、輪圈以及電線應依序優先拆解；但從環境衝擊最小化來看，則應優先拆解鉛蓄電池、含汞元件、冷媒以及安全氣囊，以達到降低環境衝擊之目的。此外，以模式的分析結果發現，若補貼改以拆解時間內，所能降低的單位衝擊進行計算，在相同的補貼金額下，可比現今補貼政策減少約65%的環境衝擊。此外，若要經由拆解符合歐盟廢車指令85%之回收目標，需將補貼費增加至1,357元，根據不確定性分析，將可符合95%的回收商的拆解成本。

關鍵字

不確定分析 ； 生命週期評估 ； 灰色系統 ； 行政補貼

並列摘要

Components of end life vehicles (ELV) are valuable but harmful to the environment if not properly dismantled and treated. To evaluate the optimal strategy of ELV dismantling, the dismantlers in Taiwan were explored in this study. Life cycle analysis and cost factors analysis of ELV components are implemented to assess the environmental impacts and cost/benefit effect. Monte Carlo simulation was also applied to assess the range of cost factor and environmental impact. A gray optimization model which incorporated with the uncertainty information was established to evaluate the optimal dismantling strategy. The goals of this model were to minimize environmental impact and to maximize economic benefits of a dismantler. Based on the foregoing analysis, the parts to be dismantled in a descending order of profit were engine, suspension, wheels, and automotive cable. While in viewpoints of environmental impacts, lead-acid batteries, mercury-containing components, refrigerants, and airbags were suggested to be removed in serial. In addition, subsidy policy based on the avoided environmental impacts over work hours is suggested rather than the existing regulated items removal and fixed subsidy. Based on the model results, the suggested subsidy can reduce 65% with the identical level of the existing subsidy. To meet the goal of 85% recycling rate by dismantling, the subsidy might be raised to 1,357 NTD to cover the man-hour cost of 95% dismantlers by uncertainty analysis.

並列關鍵字

subsidy policy ； Life Cycle Assessment ； uncertainty analysis ； grey system

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