以二項選擇權評價方法進行文創產業票房收入之投資評價

Real Option for Creativity Industry Investment Timing Strategy

莊傑閔(Chieh-min Chuang)

指導教授 ： 李宗政

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/企業管理系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

創新(Innovation)，無論是何種產業意圖維持競爭優勢、鞏固市場競爭能力之必要條件，也是影響未來經營前景之策略性活動，創新活動伴隨著對未來技術發展、生產方式與市場需求等之不確定性。企業擔負創新活動的不確定性，希望藉以創造未來之預期(經濟)利潤，如果創新有成，便可因而獲得競爭優勢所帶來的超額報酬(excess profits)。
考量文創產業可謂是具有高度的「不可逆性 (irreversible)」，即文創業者必須承擔極大的投資風險，方有機會攫取可觀的利潤；但也相對的，一旦失敗，猶如將巨額資金化為灰燼。換言之，文創產業的投資案，係因創新將面臨高度不確定性的挑戰，且對於文創產業而言，該如何於新投資案中落實技術創新(technology innovation)與創新題材(innovative theme)，將是文創業者能夠脫穎而出的必要條件。傳統的資本預算評估模式，往往無法充分反應不確定性所帶來之衝擊。因此，本文將利用經濟租(economic rent)之理論基礎，討論文創產業投資案之經濟價值，進而評析過去案例的票房現金流量型態(cash flows pattern)，據此將經濟租與相對的資金機會成本概念下構建出預期現金流量模式，提出以二項選擇權評價方法進行文創產業票房收入之投資評價模式。

關鍵字

二項選擇權評價方法 ； 經濟租 ； 創新題材 ； 票房收入 ； 文創產業

並列摘要

Innovation is not only an indispensible condition by which any industries attempt to maintain their competitive advantage and consolidate their competitiveness in a market, but also a strategic activity that may influence their prospects of management and administration. There is no doubt that the activity of innovation may bring uncertainty to the development of technique, the way of production, and the need of market. Nevertheless, entrepreneurs still bear the uncertainties in order to create future expected (economic) profits. If the innovation is successful, they can make excess profits brought by their competitive advantage.
Cultural and creative industry is considered to be highly irreversible, i.e. cultural and creative business runners must withstand great investment risk so as to have the possibility of earning splendid profits. Nonetheless, once they fail to do so, they will lose vast amounts of capital. In other words, investment projects in cultural and creative industries, due to innovation, are likely to confront the challenge of high uncertainty. Furthermore, fulfilling technology innovation and innovative theme in new investment projects is the imperative condition whereby cultural and creative business runners are able to stand out. Traditional capital budgeting evaluation model often fails to fully reveal the impacts brought by the uncertainties. Therefore, this study, based on the theory of economic rent, discussed the economic value of some investment projects in cultural and creative industries, and further evaluated and analyzed the box-office cash flow pattern of previous cases. According to this, the researcher constructed an expected cash flow model under the concepts of economic rent and relative opportunity cost of capital and proposed implementing investment pricing model in cultural and creative industry’s box-office revenue through binomial option pricing technique.

並列關鍵字

Creative Industry ； Box-office Revenue ； Innovative Theme ； Economic Rent ； Binomial Option Pricing Approach

參考文獻

[1]陳儀愷（2009）。自經濟租透視科技創新案之投資時點：以台灣新世代TFT-LCD面板廠為例。朝陽科技大學企業管理學系碩士論文，霧峰。

[1]Chance, D.M., E Hillebrand and J. E. Hilliard, (2008) “Pricing an option on revenue from an innovation: An application to movie box office revenue,” Management Science, 54(5), pp.1015–1028.

[2]Lee, Chung-Cheng and Chen, Yi-Kai (2009) “Adoption Timing of Technology Innovative Investment Project in Economic Rents Perspective,” International Journal of Information Systems and Change Management, 4(1), pp.85-99.

[3]Lee, C. Jevons, (1988) "Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty: The Issue of Optimal Timing," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 15(2), 1988, pp.155-168.

[7]Paddock, J. L., D. R. Smith, and J. L. Smith, "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug.1988, pp.479-508.