臺灣寵物產業市場趨勢分析與預估

摘要產業生態變革以及人口結構改變，形成少子化及高齡化的普遍社會現象，寵物角色也產生了改變轉化，對於現代人而言，寵物除了陪伴與娛樂外，還提供了情感上的慰藉，使得寵物躍升成為家庭一份子，獲得人性化的照護，飼主願意為寵物付出更多樣及昂貴的花費，寵物營養食品、寵物專屬用品、寵物醫療保健、寵物殯葬…等等項目消費發展迅速，造就了龐大的寵物商機。本研究以全球主要寵物產值消費地區代表性國家，寵物犬市場消費為研究對象，其中有；全球最大寵物消費國也是飼養最多小型愛玩犬的北美洲地區國家的美國、歐洲地區人口最多及大型作業犬飼養最多的國家德國、全球第二大消費國家的亞洲國家日本及本研究的重點國家，台灣的寵物市場，在寵物市場總產值中依不同消費性質分類有寵物犬食品、寵物犬醫療、寵物犬用品、寵物犬美容、寵物犬活體買賣等類項，分別統計細分五項消費值，根據 2013 年至 2017年寵物五項消費產值，應用灰色預測理論 GM(1,1) 建構市場預測模式，分別預測 2018 年至 2021年寵物市場之五項消費產值，獲得研究結論如下：一、全球四個代表性國家寵物犬市場總產值均逐年呈現正成長，顯示GDP值越高的先進國家的寵物犬市場也相對越穩定成長。二、美、德、日、台四個國家的寵物犬市場產值，在食品、醫療、用品、美容、活體買賣等五個主要消費項目中，有一個共同現象，寵物犬醫療及寵物犬美容皆逐年呈現較高的成長值，說明了人性化的寵物飼養觀念正改變寵物市場的消費生態，特定及專屬產品的高價錢消費已普遍為飼養者所接受及喜愛。三、寵物犬市場產值，在五個主要消費項目中另一個共同現象為「寵物犬活體買賣」產值在總產值營收比例中逐年呈現衰減，尤其是台灣市場更為明顯，出現負成長。四、台灣寵物犬市場，因動物保護法的訂定實施限制了寵物犬的繁殖，在沒有參酌考量寵物犬團體專家的建議下貿然制定，在配套措施不足下即行實施，以至於阻擋了繁殖空間，扼殺了寵物業的犬隻買賣供應來源，瞬間形成買賣交易市場的大萎縮，明顯的反應在消費產值上。五、寵物數量成長雖然有趨緩的現象，但是整體的市場產值並沒有隨著減緩，甚至於負成長，消費產值反而逐年呈現穩定的正成長，代表著在消費力強盛的年輕族群不斷持續的加入飼養行列，成為寵物消費市場最主要的消費族群之一，顯示寵物市場有相當大的成長空間。

關鍵字

寵物市場產值；寵物國家市場； GM(1,1)模式；灰色預測模式；消費產值項目

並列摘要

Abstract The transformation of the industrial ecology as well as the population structure has not only led to the sub-replacement fertility and population ageing phenomenon but also converted the role of the pet dogs. To modern people, except for company and entertainment, pet dogs are considered as an essential comfort. As a result, pet dogs became a member of the family and be taken care based on humanism. The consumptions on pet dogs such as nutritious supplements, specialized supplies, medical cares, interments, etc. grow rapidly which brought huge business opportunities due to breeders’ willingness to the great expense. The research subjects are the pet dogs’ consumptions of the representative nations among the global mainly output value areas which are as following – United State, a North America country apart from being the major nation of pet dogs’ consumptions worldwide, it also keeps the largest numbers of small breed toy dogs; Germany, a highest level European country with the most population and large breed working dogs; Japan, an Asian country leads the second largest consumptions; Taiwan. According to the diversity of consumption natures within total output value of pet dog markets, it could be classified into five categories - pet dog food, pet dog medical, pet dog supplies, pet dog grooming, and pet dog trading. The conclusions of the research are as following (market forecast mode based on Grey System Theory GM (1, 1), the prediction of the consumption output value of pet dog markets from 2018 to 2020 is according to the consumption output value of pet dog markets from 2013 to 2017) – First – the consumption output value of pet dog markets of the four representative nations around the world are growing positively year by year, above all, United State, Germany, and Japan are the most superb ones, the output values are 272.72 million US dollars in 2018 and 42.39 million Euros. The fact indicated that the higher GDP a country has, the pet dog market grows more stably. Second –a common phenomenon of the consumption output value of pet dog markets in United State, Germany, Japan and Taiwan among the five main items which are pet dog food, pet dog medical, pet dog supplies, pet dog grooming and pet dog trading is the higher growth values of both pet dog medical and pet dog grooming year over year, the rates are 58% in United State in 2018 as well as 54% in Germany and Japan. The results pointed out the concept of humanism pet dog breeding is changing the consumer ecology of pet dog markets. Breeders generally accept and are fond of the particular, exclusive and pricy products. Third – another common phenomenon of the consumption output value of pet dog markets is the decreasing rate of “pet dog trading” values among the total output values every year, especially in the market of Taiwan. The negative growth is shown in the total output values of 18% to the latest 8% in 2020. Fourth – the Animal Protection Act which was legislated without the participation of the pet dog experts stipulates the limit on the breeding of the pet dogs. Taking action in lack of maturely supporting measures obstructed the room of breeding also strangled the resource of the pet dog industry which caused the substantial shrinkage of pet dog trading markets and is distinctly responded in consumption. Fifth – despite the fact that the growing number of the pet dogs is eased up, the entire output value of markets does not slow down or grow negatively, on the opposite, it grows positively year by year which proved that the young generation with great capacity of consumption is joining the breeding community continuously. They gradually became one of the dominate groups of the consumption markets of pet dogs, that is, the pet dog markets still have a quite lager room to grow.