本研究將實質選擇權的觀念應用到企業的購置決策上,指出當未來的房價為不確定狀況,且租屋市場的存在同樣能滿足其住屋需求下,企業在考慮是否進行購屋決策時,其背後隱含一何時(Timing)購屋的機會選擇,為一個遞延決策選擇權(Defer Option)的概念價值,並利用二項式選擇權評價模式(Binomial Option Pricing Model),實際推導此一選擇權的價值。使用本研究的模型架構進行分析,可以清楚的由數據進行投資決策之判斷,有助於企業正確評估購租屋決策。 若加入房價溢酬,由本文分析可得知,以本個案而言,當房價溢酬為0元時,傳統NPV小於等待NPV,企業應該選擇租賃。但當房價溢酬超過500萬元時,傳統NPV大於等待NPV,企業可執行購置決策。
This study applies the concept of real option to the company decision making of tenure selection. As the house price in the future remains uncertainty, tenure selection is like a timing option to buy a house. This study does not only indicate that this option is an American put option, but also derive the value of the put option through binomial option pricing model. On the one hand, if the company selects to pay the rent for one period instead of buying a house, the expenditure may be reimbursed due to the decrease of house price. On the other, the expenditure may rise due to the increase of house price. This study offers a useful model for household to determine whether it is a right decision to buy or rent a house. The inclusion of premium prices, This paper analyzes that this particular case, when house prices premium to 0, the traditional NPV is less than waiting for the NPV, companies should choose the lease. But when prices premium over 5 million, the traditional NPV is greater than waiting for the NPV, the Enterprise executable purchase decision-making.