臺中市都市土地利用生態經濟預警系統模擬與分析之研究

Simulation and Analysis of Eco-Economic Early-Warning System for the Urban Land Use of Taichung City

伍南彰(NAN-CHANG WU)

指導教授 ： 何友鋒

朝陽科技大學/設計學院/建築系建築及都市設計碩博士班/博士(2017年)

摘要

都市土地乃都市人口生活與經濟活動之標的物，合宜的都市土地供給與利用為提昇都市經濟與都市永續發展的必要條件。近年來由於都市土地利用供需失調，各級產業土地資源需求轉變頻繁，農林用地遭侵蝕違規使用，迭有土地不當利用情形，產生污染並破壞生態環境，危及都市經濟與生態平衡之發展。都市土地利用生態經濟發展為多重要因不斷交互波動衝擊結果的完整體現，具有動態性、因果性、回饋性、敏感性等特徵，其發展之良莠受到都市計劃措施、土地資源供需、土地開發管理等相關政策施為的綜合制約影響。惟面對複雜多變的土地利用行為，目前國內缺乏都市土地利用生態經濟預警相關之研究與因應機制，長期存在土地利用效益低落與生態環境衝擊之問題，實有加強土地利用變化趨勢觀測、落實即時預警與改善策略施為之必要。故如何因應土地利用歷史發展因素與未來多變之需求波動，建立完善的都市土地利用生態經濟發展預測與警示機制，以利動態改善策略的施為，為土地利用決策與管理者亟須面對之重要課題。
本研究以生態都市永續發展觀點，進行都市土地利用生態經濟結構剖析、定量測算和策略模擬，採行多理論、多模型與個案實證研究，依據臺中市土地利用生態經濟歷年發展狀況，從預測及預警兩階段構思預警系統，建置適切並可及時政策評價的都市土地利用生態經濟監測預警動態模擬系統，提昇土地利用風險防制能力。本研究藉由生態經濟學與土地生態經濟學理論，探討土地利用生態經濟運行機制；以系統工程學為核心，應用模糊德爾菲專家諮詢及敏感度分析，建構都市土地利用預測預警指標體系；結合系統動態學、遺傳演算類神經網路，建構都市土地利用生態經濟預警系統動態模擬模型；透過景氣對策信號機制評價都市土地利用生態經濟警情；經由情境模擬進行土地利用政策尋優。研究發現多方法協同可系統化應用於都市土地利用動態研究；透過都市建築用地、交通用地與森林用地面積複合調控模擬，較單一情境模擬政策評價為佳，可較為有效穩定都市人口成長，達成土地有效利用、提升財政稅收與健全生態環境之政策目標。
基於系統性排警思維，除建議設置「都市土地利用生態經濟預警系統動態模擬專責機構」外，對於建立中臺區域土地利用預警體系、推動土地多目標使用與建築物修繕、加強土地利用管理與再生利用等配套策略措施，亦應兼籌並顧有效調控土地利用，達到臺中市都市永續發展之目標。

關鍵字

系統動態學 ； 系統工程 ； 模糊德爾菲 ； 都市土地利用生態經濟 ； 生態經濟 ； 類神經網路

並列摘要

Urban land is the subject matter of urban life style and economy, suitable urban land supply and usage are essential requirements for upgrading the city’s economic status and sustainable development. In recent years, the improper use of land such as imbalance supply and demand of urban land, frequent change of need among different level of estate and the illegal use of farmland lead to pollution and damage to the ecosystem that could harm the city’s development balance between economy and ecosystem. The characteristic of the Eco-economic of urban land use is the result of multiple interaction and the result is not only dynamic but also contains the feature of cause and effect, feedback and sensitivity, and its development is influence by integrated restriction factors including policy related to city planning, supply and demand of land, and the develop and management of lands. At present, there is lack of research study to confront the complex behavior related to the predicament of Eco-economic of urban land use and its response mechanism, and the long existed problem of low efficiency land use and its impact on eco-environment requisite the improvement of observation related to the trend of land use and implement on forecasting and improving policy. Therefore it is important for policy makers and supervisors to confront the task of how to building a thorough predict and alarm system for Eco-economic of urban land use and progression based on the historical use, development and the changing fluctuation of future needs to bring benefit to dynamically improve application of related strategies.
From the aspect of ecological city and sustainable development the research used structure analyses of Eco-economic of urban land use, quantitative measurement and strategy simulation with multiple theory, model and case study. Using Taichung city’s Eco-economic of urban land use development as an example the research design a forewarning system from the aspect of forecasting and forewarning. The system is design to appropriately and timely evaluate the policy using the Surveillance Dynamics Model for Eco-economic System to enhance the ability of risk control on land use. The study used theories from the field of Eco-economics and Land Eco-economics to investigate the operation of Eco-economic Land Use. First Systems Engineering was used as the main core and applied Fuzzy Delphi expert consultation and sensitivity analysis to construct the forecast and forewarning system of urban land use. Then, combined with System Dynamics and genetic calculus Artificial Neural Network to construct the Surveillance Dynamics Model for Eco-economic of urban land use. Through by the economic response mechanism to evaluate and alarm the Eco-economic of urban land use and optimize land use policy by simulation. The research discovered that by applying the multiple assistant system to the study of dynamic urban land use is more effective than the single scenario simulation strategy. Through combing simulation model of urban construction area, traffic area and forest land the population growth could be more stable and could benefit the government’s goal of using land effectively, increasing tax revenue and building healthy ecological environment.
Based on the thought of systematic eliminate potential threat the research recommended to set up ‘The Institution of the Surveillance Dynamics Model for Eco-economic of Urban Land Use’ and related policies such as establishing mid-Taiwan land usage forewarning system, multiple usage of single unit, renovation of buildings and enhancement of land use including manage and regenerate should also be take in to consideration to control the use of land efficiently and reach the goal of sustainable development for Taichung City.

並列關鍵字

System Dynamics ； Fuzzy Delphi ； Systems Engineering ； Eco-economic of Urban Land Use ； Eco-economic ； Artificial Neural Network

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