登革熱流行因子與病媒蚊擴散模型之研究－兼論預警資訊系統之建立

A Study on Prevalence Factors of Dengue Fever and Expansion Model of Aedes Aegypti ── As Basis for Constructing an Alert Information System

林俊宏(Chun-hong lin)

指導教授 ： 陳志誠

大同大學/經營設計學院/資訊經營學系所/碩士(2006年)

摘要

至今登革熱仍在台灣肆虐，出血性登革熱甚至於造成死亡災難。本研究為了有效防範控制病媒蚊密度，阻斷本土登革熱及登革出血熱發生及流行，本研究採用分群方法，考慮病媒蚊影響因子，分為地理因子、氣候因子研究來討論各因子對於台灣登革熱之影響。
在氣候因子上，發現雨量對於病媒蚊指數當日情形呈現低度相關，然而當日布氏指數相較於前七天雨量卻呈現高度相關，且當雨量大的冬季也會讓登革熱陡升。由於台灣屬海島性國家，且面積狹小，是故在分群時即呈現溫度及溼度對於病媒蚊指數低度相關，在地理因子上，高度顯著會影響登革熱之情形，經緯度上，因國家狹小而影響不大。
　　吾人提出各類擴散模型，由於登革熱上升幅度呈現指數函數圖形，是故方程為 採前半部之圖形，下降幅度呈現陡降，利用拉格朗日多項式提出 之模型，並透過蚊蟲每天平均飛行50公尺習性提出蚊蟲飛行擴散模型為 ，在本文最後，提出預警系統架構，盼望藉此一研究能更精確預測病媒蚊之擴散情形，直接收到登革熱預防之效果，以作預警系統之基礎。

關鍵字

病媒蚊 ； 登革熱 ； 擴散模型 ； 預警系統

並列摘要

The presence of dengue disease for continuous years in Taiwan means an existing threat for us; dengue haemorrhage fever is even life- endangering. In order to help to control virus-transmitting mosquitoes and to block local pandemic, we analyze 34,000 case reports from 1999 to 2003 in southern Taiwan and identify the impact of climatic and geographical factors on prevalence of the disease.
In the analysis we found that geographical height is correlated to the prevalence of the dengue disease, but not geographical location. This is probably because the limited area in Taiwan. High temperature and high humidity favor the multiplication of aedes aegypti, but rainfall has impact in a specific way: Seven days after a rain, if the weather is warm and dry, there might be a sharp increase in density of the vector. Similar observation is found in winter.
We propose a model for describing the expansion of aedes aegypti, where the increase of mosquito density is described by and the fall of the density is by . The activity area of the mosquito can be described by . These models serve as a basis for constructing a surveillance information system. We also propose a structure of the system to be developed.

並列關鍵字

Aedes Aegypti ； Dengue Fever ； Biological Modeling ； Surveillance information System

參考文獻

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