使用關聯法則預測與分析台灣樂透彩

Using Association Rules to Predict and Analyze Taiwan’s Lotto Patterns

饒美倫(Mei-lun Jao)

指導教授 ： 黃有評

大同大學/電機資訊學院/資訊工程學系所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

美夢成真的機率有多少？2002年台灣地區的樂透彩券開賣，很快成為社會上最熱門的話題，民眾投注熱烈，無非是希望能一夕致富，因此明牌求得的方法也一一的出現。在樂透的世界裡，是否有明牌存在呢？以科學的角度來看，大樂透是一種機會的遊戲，是由1至49個號碼中，隨機產生6個不重複的號碼，民眾的投注號碼只要和這6個號碼相同，即可一夜致富。
然而，看似隨機，其實暗藏玄機？數台機器滾出來的六顆小球，彼此之間真的毫無關係嗎？抑或早就組成小團體，會在某個時間點同時出現？本篇論文使用資料探勘的技術 – 關連法則，探討大樂透中獎號碼之間是否具有關聯性並且分析這些關聯性所產生的經濟效益。
本篇研究使用關聯法則探勘樂透號碼，探勘方式分成三組實驗進行，第一組是實際樂透號碼，第二組為虛擬樂透號碼，第三組則將實際樂透號碼及虛擬樂透號碼合併進行實驗。實驗結果中，至少可以找出至少三個一組是有關聯的號碼，再針對探勘結果預測未來的樂透號碼，預測結果也顯示在未來的樂透號碼中，至少可以預測出兩個號碼或三個號碼在同一組開獎的機會。

關鍵字

樂透、資料探勘、關聯法則

並列摘要

What is the probability of winning a lottery game and becoming a millionaire over just one night? In 2002, Taiwan Lottery Co. started issuing lottery tickets. And since then, lottery fever has gripped the nation. Many residents in Taiwan may go extremes to find "magic numbers" at temples, but is the "magic numbers" really exist? From the scientific point of view, lottery game is a game of probabilities of randomly drawing six numbers from the set {1, 2, ..., 49}. And by any chance if anyone picks the same numbers as the lottery company does, then he or she becomes a millionaire over one night.
However, are those lottery numbers really drawn randomly? Or are there any hidden profound and abstruse principles that could be followed in order to get the "magic numbers" beforehand? In this thesis, we will use popular technology of Data Mining of Association Rules to predict and analyze Taiwan's Lotto patterns.
In this study, experiment were into three parts, the first part is the actual lottery numbers, the second part as virtual lottery numbers, and the third part will merge the actual lottery numbers and virtual lottery numbers to analyze. The experimental results can identify a group of at least three of the numbers is a draw numbers, then exploration results for the lottery numbers to predict, forecasting results also show that in the next lottery numbers, can be predicted at least two or three numbers in the same draw numbers.

並列關鍵字

Data Mining ； Lottery ； Lotto ； Association Rules

參考文獻

[11] 謝宗林(2002)，亞當史密斯看樂透，中華經濟研究院，經濟前瞻雙月刊。

[3] C.H. Cai, Ada W.C. Fu, C.H. Cheng and W.W. Kwong, “Mining Association Rules with Weighted Items,” Proceedings of IDEAS’98 International Database Engineering and Applications Symposium, pp.68-77, 1998.

一、中文部分

[1] 台灣彩券股份有限公司網站，http://www.taiwanlottery.com.tw/。

[2] 尹相志(2007)，SQL Server 2005 Data Mining資料採礦與Office 2007資料採礦增益集，第3-12頁，第176-183頁。