情境分析在富士康國際控股公司之策略規劃應用

APPLICATION OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO THE STRATEGIC PLANNING OF FOXCONN INTERNATIONAL HOLDING COMPANY

賴尚志(Shang-chih Lai)

指導教授 ： 李賢哲

大同大學/經營設計學院/事業經營學系所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

台灣的手機產業廠商多以代工為主，由於主要品牌市占率的更迭、高階手機的跨入門檻較高、對消費者行為研究不足等因素，直接衝擊台灣代工業者的營運能力。富士康國際以優異的產品品質、高效率的全球運籌交貨模式、高度競爭力的價格，獲得許多國際品牌大廠認可。
本研究的目的是探討富士康國際未來5~10年間支持其提高產品附加價值及創造競爭優勢的核心競爭策略。本研究從技術能力、需求變化以及市場結構三個不確定軸面發展出具代表性的未來可能情境分別為成長停滯、緩步復甦和積極創新。建議富士康國際在不同情境下的競爭策略：
成長停滯情境以熊彼得競爭策略，管理創新可行方案為消除不必要活動，技術創新可行方案為推行價值工程，維持低成本優勢。
緩步復甦情境以低階破壞性創新策略，推出更簡單、更便利、更便宜的產品給技術需求低的顧客，可行方案則為策略投資｢軟體開發｣、｢系統整合｣、｢產品外觀設計｣等選擇權組合。
積極創新情境以｢新市場破壞性創新｣與｢在地化｣策略，建議以｢向下大躍進｣的國際性策略－爭取尚未消費者的潛在新市場，瞄準低所得國家的市場，並與當地公司結盟，藉由提供低價產品／服務給尚未消費者，獲取更大的成長空間。

關鍵字

策略選擇權 ； 情境分析法

並列摘要

Most Taiwanese companies in the mobile phone industry are based on OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturing) and ODM (Original Design Manufacturing). The operations of these companies have been impacted directly due to changes in customers’ market shares, the higher entry barriers of smartphones, and their lack of the customer behavior analyses. Foxconn International Holding Ltd. (FIH) has been famous for their excellent product qualities and great cost-leadership performances that have been certified by worldwide mobile phone brand leaders.
The goal of this research is to investigate the core competency strategies of how FIH will raise the value added of the company's products and create competitive advantages during 2014-2019. By scenario analysis, the uncertainties of the future operation development of FIH are categorized to three dimensions: technical ability, changes in demand and market structure. According to these three dimensions, the stagnant growth, slow recovery, and active innovation scenarios are developed for FIH.
Under the stagnant growth scenario, the Schumpeterian competition is highly recommended. More improvements in the value chain activities such as process and information systems are advised to provide unique values, and the value engineering is recommended to sustain the company’s low-cost advantage.
Under the slow recovery scenario, a low-cost business model is recommended to launch the low-end disruption and to reach overshot customers. The combination of the advantage of EMS and the design ability of ODM is advised. The investment portfolios such as soft design and system integration may reduce the strategic risk FIH faces.
Under the active innovation scenario, the combination of new-market disruptive innovation and local act is recommended. As regards the company’s international strategy, “seeking the great leap download” is highly suggested. A separate organization is advised for cultivating long-term relationships with partners such as local wireless carriers and retailers.

並列關鍵字

scenario analysis ； strategic option

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