應用模糊層級分析法於工程專案計畫書風險評估

APPLYING FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR PROJECT PROPOSAL RISK ASSESSMENT

吳熖煌(Yann-Hwang Wu)

指導教授 ： 林永仁

大同大學/工程學院/工程管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本篇論文指出在目前高度競爭的工程領域環境中，處處充滿不確定因素，每一個工程專案從規劃、設計、採購、製造、施工、試運轉、正式商轉、承包商作移交業主及保固等各步驟及環節皆可能發生風險，造成專案工期延遲及成本增加。承包商於工程專案計畫書報價階段，作適當的風險管理計畫可降低意外風險發生所造成專案無法預期的影響。
工程專案風險包括商業條款、技術及內外在環境等等風險因素。本研究以國內電力或化工廠工程專案可能發生之風險因素及其因子建立風險分層架構(Risk Breakdown Structure)，並一此架構建立工程專案計畫書風險評估模型。專案經理執行計畫書風險評估習慣以自己經驗評估，常落入主觀的框架效應，無法客觀評估。以模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, FAHP)佐以專家問卷調查方式，可客觀分析工程專案計畫書各項風險因子的相對權重、排序及風險強度分類，並對影響較大之高強度風險因子提出因應策略以作為決策者參考。
結論顯示各風險因子間相對權重及排序趨勢與目前工程界實際執行常發生之風險項目及影響接近，以模糊層級分析法應用工程專案計畫書之風險評估方式是客觀可靠的，若調整風險因子可應用於其他行業。

關鍵字

工程專案計畫書 ； 風險評估 ； 專案經理 ； 模糊層級分析法

並列摘要

In the highly competitive engineering field, it is fully occupied with uncertainty factors. Every engineering-construction project contains many unpredictable and risky issues at every stage such as: planning, design, procurement, fabrication, manufacturing, construction, start up, operation, and turning-over the plant or field to the owner and as well as the warranty. The contractor shall prepare an adequate risk management plan, which can reduce the impact of unpredicted risks during project proposal stage.
The project risks cover commercial terms and conditions, and the technical, internal and external environments in the ITB (Invitation to Bid). All those risk factors must be evaluated prior to issuing project proposal. This thesis will base on the risk factors, which may happen in chemical and power project proposal. A risk breakdown structure of these risk factors is setted up. Then a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) model is built.
Historically, the project manager always performs the risk assessment based on his/her past experiences, however good or bad those experiences may be. As a result, the project manager is unable to assess the risks of a proposed project impersonally, but will always be affected by his/her past experiences. Questionnaire form has been received the expert’s assessment on risk level by again making pair comparisons between risks. A model of the FAHP will be developed with weighted coefficients, rankings and categorizing the levels of risk. The strategy of response for high risk levels shall be presented for top management reference or for making the final decisions.
The results indicated the trend of weighted coefficients, and ranking among all risky factors are similar with recent developments in the engineering-construction field. Consequently, this thesis proves FAHP applied to the project proposal risk assessment is beneficial.

並列關鍵字

Project proposal ； Risk assessment ； Project manager ； FAHP

參考文獻

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