運用公司治理與財務比率建構危機預警模型

Applying Corporate Governance and Financial Ratios to Develop a Financial Distress Prediction Model

陳富祥(Fu-Hsiang Chen)

指導教授 ： 林國欽

台南應用科技大學/管理學院/商學與管理研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6821/TUT.2009.00005

摘要

隨著企業全球化佈局時代的來臨，企業一旦經營不善發生財務危機，所影響的層面將愈來愈廣，受波及的除了企業本身內部的員工及眷屬外，也影響到外部的投資者與債權人，嚴重的話甚至可能影響到股市正常的運作以及經濟社會的安定。過去的學者，多利用財務報表資訊來預測公司是否發生財務危機，但財務報表是可以透過人為操控而達到窗飾效果，僅由財務資訊可能無法直接窺得企業真實之全貌。近幾年來，有些學者則提出將非財務之資訊納入考量，而非財務資訊對財務危機之發生確實也提供一定程度之解釋。
本研究是選取金融業以外2006年到2008年之間發生財務危機的27家上市公司，以及2008年台灣50指數基金成份股與中型100成份股中108家正常公司為研究對象，並以公司治理及財務資訊兩大主軸，運用羅吉斯迴歸分析(Logistic regression)建立財務危機預警模型，期能協助企業、投資者與債權人等及早洞悉企業發生財務危機之徵兆，並事先加以控制與預防，將損失降至最低。
實證結果發現，最具有解釋能力的構面依序為財務結構、償債能力、主要股東介入度以及現金流量，而本研究所建立之財務危機預警模型整體正確的預測率在危機發生前一年至前三年均達89％以上，顯示本研究所建立的模型具有顯著的風險區別能力。

關鍵字

公司治理 ； 財務危機 ； 羅吉斯迴歸分析

並列摘要

With the layout of the era of corporate globalization, if corporate has improper management of financial crises, the level of attection will be more widely, not only company employees and their families within their own, but also affect the external investors and creditors and may even affect the normal operation of the stock market and the economic and social stability. Many scholars provided multi-use financial statement information to predict whether the company into financial crisis. However, the financial statements can be manipulated to achieve stocks effect and the financial information may not be directly obtained on the real glimpse of the picture. In recent years, some scholars have proposed the non-financial information into consideration rather than the financial information on the financial crisis which also provide a degree of interpretation.
In this study, we selected 27 financial crises companies except the financial sector between 2006 and 2008 and the constituent stocks of the Taiwan 50 Index Fund and the constituent stocks of medium-sized 100 companies in 108 normal subjects in 2008. We develop the logistic regression models to corporate governance and financial information of two themes for predicting a financial crisis. With early warning and hope to help businesses, investors, creditors and other early insight into the financial crises of the symptoms as well as prior to the control and prevention to let the losses of minimum.
Many empirical results reveal the most explanatory power configuration is financial structure of company. The correct prior to the crisis year of financial distress can reach to 89% over the previous three years and show the model in this study with significant differences between the risk of capacity.

並列關鍵字

Corporate governance ； Financial crisis ； Logistic regression analysis

參考文獻

一、中文部份

（一）期刊文章：

1.張大為（民94），「千禧年台灣企業財務危機」，中華徵信所期刊。

2.李春安、吳欽杉、葉麗玉（民92），「所有權結構與公司非法行為關係之研究－以台灣股票上市公司為例」，證券市場發展季刊，第十四券、第四期。

3.曾相海、孫盈哲、吳瑞山（民98），「企業危機預警之分析-以Logit 模型建財務指標實證分析」。臺灣銀行季刊，第六十卷，第二期。