探討財務比率及公司治理對於財務危機預警之研究

由於我國諸多上市櫃公司乃屬於家族性的公司，法人投資的比例不高，因而導致企業經營的生死大權可以掌握在少部分人手上，造成財務報表往往經過矯飾扭曲，盈餘無法正確反映公司之獲利能力，使得財務報表的可信度遭到懷疑，無法產生任何警示作用。故本研究除了考慮財務變數外，另加入公司治理變數，建構上市上櫃公司之財務危機預警，期望加入公司治理變數組合後能增進財務預警模型的預測能力。首先本研究先以逐步迴歸來篩選變數，再以二元Logistic分析法建構預警模型，探討危機發生前三年，財務變數之模型、公司治理變數之模型及同時考慮財務變數與公司治理變數之綜合模型，並比較不同分割值下，各模型間之預測能力。實證結果顯示，以分割值在0.5之綜合模型的區別率比單純考慮財務模型或公司治理模型之區別率來得高。

關鍵字

財務危機預警模型；公司治理；邏輯斯迴歸

並列摘要

Given the fact that a majority of the TSE and OTC-listed companies in Taiwan are family-run businesses, the ratio of institutional investment tends to remain low. As a result, the key powers of these companies are usually held by only a handful of people. Their financial statements are often glossed over and skewed, and the earnings shown in the financial statements cannot accurately reflect the company’s profitability, causing the credibility of their financial statements to be questioned, as they cannot provide any early warning about the company’s business performance. Hence, other than financial variables, this study added in corporate governance variables to construct an early warning model for financial crisis of TSE and OTC-listed companies, in attempt to enhance the predictability of the model concerning early financial warnings. By using stepwise regression to screen variables, followed by constructing an early warning model with binary logistic analysis, the study investigated and compared the predictability of the financial variable model, corporate governance variable model, and the combined model of both financial variables and corporate governance variables, three years prior to the occurrence of a crisis. The empirical results show that the combined model has a higher discrimination rate than the financial variable model or corporate governance variable model alone.