國際氣候變遷與合作協調機制-以「京都議定書」為例

氣候變遷是國際全球性的問題，尤其以溫室氣體排放所引起的全球氣候暖化，對全世界社會、經濟等各領域都有重大影響，因此必須立即採取有效的應對措施。從1992年以來，各國多次召開氣候變遷會議，希望找到各締約國能夠接受的協定方案，為日趨嚴重的氣候變遷問題找出新的思路。本文運用賽局理論研究國際氣候合作問題，並假設國家是統一而理性的行為主體，國際間的賽局是由國家居主導地位，可以區分出幾種典型的國際合作形式，結合全球氣候談判中所面臨的各種問題；同時，引入簡明的賽局圖式，分析在不同類型的賽局圖式下，不同國家的策略選擇將會影響全球氣候變遷問題如何去解決，並且決定國際間如何去進行合作。並說明《聯合國氣候變遷架構公約》和《京都議定書》等國際制度設計與安排，及如何應對國際間日趨嚴重的氣候變遷問題進一步分析，可以提供三種可供選擇的方法：限量與交易、碳稅手段、政策與措施，上述三種方法也可以混合使用成為『綜合方案』。運用『綜合方案』來解決《京都議定書》中所遇到的，排放權配額分配與交易問題、監測機構問題、履約問題。最後，本文期許能夠對我國如何因應氣候變遷、溫室氣體減量等，提出相關建議。

關鍵字

國際氣候合作；賽局理論；聯合國氣候變遷架構公約；京都議定書

並列摘要

Climate change is a worldwide issue, especially global climate warming caused by green house effect, which results in the severe impact on the world’s social and economic developments. Since 1992, many climate change conferences have been convened to reach a consensus on an agreement by discovering innovative approaches to the worsening problems. By applying game theory, the study hypothesizes that a state is a unified and rational entity in reaching coordination for global climate cooperation project. With nations as the dominant players in international game situations, typical international cooperation styles can be divided for solving problems facing global climate negotiations. Further, by introducing an intelligible diagram, the author tries to analyze how a nation’s strategy choice can impact the solution to the problem of global climate change, and tries to determine how international cooperation should be conducted. Further analysis will be conducted on how UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), Kyoto Protocol, and other designs and arrangements of international system, have been dealing with the worsening climate change. The study proposes three approaches: quota and trading, carbon tax means, polices, and measures, or a combination of the three as comprehensive project, which can be utilized to solve quota distribution of discharge rights and trading, monitoring institution, and contract fulfillment in implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, suggestions are made to the government on how to cope with the problems of climate change, reduction of greenhouse gas etc.