不同成長性機會下中國飲料業上市公司資本結構和經營績效之非線性平滑轉換研究

本文選取中國飲料業上市公司2010至2016年A股27家上市公司，依據代理成本和過度投資代理成本假說，提出相關研究假定。隨後，對因變數、自變數和控制變數提出了本文研究之實證模型。縱橫平滑轉換回歸模型結果顯示：不同成長性下，資本結構與經營績效間存在單一區制轉換，但門檻變數數值較低，一般低於正常公司成長性標準，這表明中國飲料業上市公司成長性對資本結構和經營績效之關聯存在單一非線性影響。具體而言，大多數情況下，飲料行業上市公司資本結構和公司績效存在顯著負向關係。但隨著公司成長性不斷提高，當成長性上升到極高水準時，資本結構將可以促進公司經營績效。最後，由於多數情況下資本結構對飲料業上市公司經營績效存在負相關，因此本文給出相應政策建議。首先，為了完善資本結構和充分發揮債務硬約束，大力發展企業債券市場。其次，制定扭轉股權融資偏好之法規和監管政策。最後，強化銀行作為債權人治理作用。

關鍵字

飲料上市公司；成長性；資本結構；經營績效；縱橫平滑轉換

並列摘要

This paper selects 27 listed companies of A stock in the beverage industry of China from the period of 2010 to 2016. Based on the classic underinvestment agency cost hypothesis and the over investment agency cost hypothesis, relevant research hypotheses are put forward. Then, the definitions of dependent variables, independent variables and control variables are defined, and the empirical model is putting forward on the basis of hypothesis analysis and reference to previous scholars. The panel smooth transition regression model showed that: under different growth, there is a single area for conversion of capital structure and operating performance, but the threshold variable value is generally lower than the normal growth which shows that China beverage industry growth of listed companies has a single nonlinear effect on the relationship between capital structure and operation performance. Specifically, in most cases, there is a significant negative relationship between the capital structure and corporate performance of the listed companies of the beverage industry. However, as the growth of the company continues to grow, the capital structure will boost the company's performance when growth reaches an extremely high level. Considering that most of the capital structure is negatively related to the operating performance of the listed companies in the beverage industry, this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations. First, in order to improve the capital structure and give full play to the hard constraints of debt, the enterprise bond market should be energetically developed. Second, legislation and regulatory policies should be developed to reverse the preference for equity financing. The governance role of banks as creditors should be strengthen.