中國飲料上市公司資本結構與營運績效之非綫性 關聯研究—縱橫門檻效果分析

本文緊緊圍繞中國飲料業上市公司資本結構與公司績效的相關關係展開，研究主要採用定性分析與定量分析、規範分析與實證分析相結合的研究方法，側重於實證研究。具體而言，通過建立非線性縱橫門檻模型，考察中國飲料上市公司是否存在一個最佳資本結構，並進一步研究中國飲料上市公司資本結構現狀，力求揭示其內在關聯。本文以中國A股飲料上市公司為樣本，選取2001年至2016年資料。為保證實證結果的穩健性，本文分別採用資產負債率和股權結構作為上市公司資本結構指標，採用托賓Q值和淨資產收益率作為上市公司運營績效指標，並將公司資產規模和公司成長性作為控制變數。研究結果表明，托賓Q值和淨資產收益率均對資產負債率和股權結構存在顯著單一門檻效應。具體來看，資本結構與運營績效呈現顯著的倒U形關係，表明中國A股飲料上市公司普遍存在最大化運營績效的最適資本結構。而現實中，較多上市公司與這一最適資本結構存在偏離。本文研究為中國A股上市公司最適資本結構的確定提供了實證依據。最後，本文依據實證結果提出了飲料業上市公司資本結構的不合理性的改進思路。

關鍵字

飲料上市公司；資本結構；運營績效；縱橫門檻模型

並列摘要

This thesis mainly focuses on the relationship between capital structure and corporate performance in China beverage listed companies. Both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are applied for the investigation. The core content of this thesis is the construction of panel threshold regression model. Specifically, panel threshold regression model is utilized to find out whether Chinese beverage listed company has an optimal capital structure. On this basis, this thesis devotes to reveal the inherent relation between capital structure and corporate performance in China. In this thesis, a sample of Chinese A-share listed beverage companies is selected, and the time period is during 2001 to 2016. In order to ensure the robustness of the empirical results, this thesis uses the asset liability ratio and the ownership concentration as indicators of capital structure. The Tobin's Q value and the rate of return on net assets are utilized as a listed company operating performance indicators, and the scale of the company's assets and company growth are utilized as the control variables. The results show that both Tobin's Q and return on assets have a single threshold effect on asset liability ratio and ownership concentration. Specifically, the capital structure and operational performance show a significant inverted U relationship, which shows that China's A-share beverage listed companies generally have the optimal capital structure for the maximization of the operational performance. However, many listed companies deviate from the optimal capital structure in reality. This study provides empirical evidence for the determination of the optimal capital structure of China's A-share beverage listed companies. Finally, based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward the irrational improvement of the capital structure.