「臺紐自由貿易協定」的洽簽對臺、紐、澳經濟影響之一般均衡分析

Likely Economic Impacts of a Free Trade Agreement between Taiwna and New Zealand

吳佳勳(Chia-Hsuan Wu) ； 徐世勳(Shih-Hsun Hsu)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 35卷1期 (2004/10) Pp. 1-39

https://doi.org/10.29629/TEFP.200410.0001

摘要

本研究採用美國普渡大學全球貿易分析中心所研發的GTAP模型，以其最新版（第五版）資料庫，在WTO的架構體系下，評估「臺紐自由貿易協定」的洽簽所可能帶來的經濟影響。臺灣與紐、澳間的產品生產與出口具有相當高的互補性質，在現行的貿易互動上，臺澳之間較臺紐之間來得密切。模擬結果顯示，對臺灣而言，臺、紐、澳自由貿易協定不論在總體面或者產業個體面的經濟效益都比臺紐自由貿易協定的效益來得更高，包括社會福利的提高（由負面影響轉為正面）、進出口貿易值的增加、國內總產值的成長，乃至於引發的貿易創造及貿易移轉效果的更加明顯等等。而對澳洲來講，若臺灣單獨與紐西蘭簽署自由貿易協定，臺灣將會把原本應從澳洲進口的產品轉而由紐西蘭來進口，產生貿易移轉效果，而使得貿易值萎縮，社會福利下降，因此澳洲若願意同時與我國和紐西蘭洽簽自由貿易協定，對臺、紐、澳三方而言，將可達到「三贏」的局面｡

關鍵字

自由貿易協定 ； 貿易創造效果 ； 貿易移轉效果 ； 可計算一般均衡分析

並列摘要

This article uses a multi-regional, multi-sectoral GTAP model and its global data set to provide an economy-wide analysis of likely impacts of a free trade agreement between Taiwan and New Zealand. Simulation results show that a free trade agreement between Taiwan and New Zealand will benefit both economies, but might have negative impacts on the Australian economy due to trade creation and trade diversion effects.

並列關鍵字

Free trade agreement (FTA) ； Trade creation effect ； Trade diversion effect ； Computable general equilibrium (CGE)

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