從布希外交團隊與領導風格看美國外交與兩岸政策

The U.S. Foreign and Cross-Strait Policies from the Perspectives of George W. Bush's Leadership and Foreign Policy Team

陳一新(Edward I-Hsin Chen)

《遠景季刊》 2卷1期 (2001/01) Pp. 1-33

https://doi.org/10.7063/PR.200101.0001

摘要

本論文主要是想從美國新任總統布希(George W. Bush)和其外交團隊成員的互動以及他過去的領導風格來看新政府的外交與兩岸政策。筆者將從布希如何在其外交團隊成員影響之下以及如何從輔選老布希(George Bush)、擔任德州州長期間和自己參選總統的過程中吸取、累積外交事務的經驗，從而形成他自己的國際觀與一套宏觀的美國外交政策。至於本論文的主旨則是:布希在2000年大選期間的全球戰略與外交政策似乎姿態相當高，對中共好像不假辭色，對我國則看來較為友善；惟在入主白宮之後，他可望會誰出一個揉合謙恭與力量的全球戰略與外交政策，對兩岸的政策也可望逐漸朝國際現實靠攏。要嘗之，布希競選期問所發表的言論，有些固然可以作為觀察他未來推動外交政策的重要參考，當然也不可盡信。惟從其外交團隊人事部署對照其競選期間的言論，倒是可以據以推論出某些外交政策的主軸，包括推動使美國在國際體系中維持優勢，但不輕易介入國際衝突、偏亞重歐、部署飛彈防禦系統、對兩岸維持一個大致平衡的政策等。

關鍵字

外交團隊 ； 領導風格 ； 國際政經體系 ； 大國外交 ； 偏亞重歐 ； 全國飛彈防禦系統 ； 戰區飛彈防禦系統 ； 美國對華政策

並列摘要

The main purpose of this essay is to explore the new U.S. administration's foreign and cross-strait policies by examining the leadership of George W. Bush and the interactions between the key members of his foreign policy team and the President.The author will analyze how Bush Jr. learned and formulated his own ideas on U.S. foreign policy under the instructions of his strategic and foreign policy advisers. His prolonged learning process started from being involved in the election campaigns for his father, assuming the position of Texas Governor and becoming the GOP's presidential candidate. As for the main theme of this paper, it is argued, that Bush could change his foreign policy after he becomes the master of the White House. The real question we should ask is to what extent he would change. Indeed, he maintained a strong stance in the U.S. global strategy and foreign policy during the Y2K presidential election, claiming that if elected he would be tough toward Beijing and commit himself to helping defend Taiwan. However, he, after being elected, will conduct a foreign policy that combines humility with strength and maintain a realist approach toward the cross-strait relations. While we can comprehend his future foreign policy on the basis of Bush's remarks during the campaign, we cannot take his words for granted. Judging from the appointments of key members of his foreign policy team and their remarks, we can at least know the main features of his foreign policy. It includes a policy of maintaining an edge in the international community without being arrogant, a cautious but responsible intervention policy, an Asia-oriented policy mixed with a policy of maintaining both Asian and European alliances, an intransigent policy of deploying the National Missile Defense system, and a largely balanced policy toward both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

並列關鍵字

Foreign Policy team ； leadership type ； international politico-economic system ； great-power diplomacy ； pro-Asia policy with emphasis on Europe ； National Missile Defense system ； Theater Missile Defense system

參考文獻

Amitage, R.(2001).A Republican View: Managing Relations with Russia, China, India.U. S. Foreign Policy Agenda.5(2)

Crock, S.(2000).What A Bush Foreign Policy Would Look Like.Business Week.

Crock, S.(2000).How Bush Would Lead.Business Week.