從俄烏戰爭論臺海安全與兩岸關係發展

2022年2月俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，這是給臺灣的一面鏡子。目前兩岸關係形勢險峻，如何同時處理好兩岸與臺美的關係，維持區域內的勢力均衡，正考驗著蔡英文未來兩年的執政。臺灣在避戰的同時，應引導兩岸關係建立和平穩定框架，與美國維持良好關係的同時，也要避免成為美國遏制中國的棋。臺灣必須制定和掌握自身的避險策略，避免步上烏克蘭的後塵（烏克蘭成為西方與俄羅斯利益衝突的戰爭代理人），讓北京對兩岸未來的發展有所願景，包括恢復兩岸交流對話和深化兩岸經濟文化合作等等事項。對臺灣來說，國際地位、憂患意識、國家安全、全民共識尤其特別重要。臺灣應該就兩岸問題進行滾動式的檢討，如何避免發生戰爭，主動加強兩岸溝通，進行有建設性的評估，建立兩岸信心措施，包括：建立兩岸軍事互信機制、建立替代共識擱置爭議，及鼓勵兩岸民間多元交流化解敵意。戰爭沒有贏家，和平沒有輸家；以大事小以仁，以小事大以智。

關鍵字

地緣政治；蘇聯；北約；冷戰；聯合國安理會

並列摘要

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is a mirror for Taiwan. At present, the situation of cross-strait relations is precarious. How to properly handle cross-strait relations of Taiwan with the United States, at the same time maintain the balance of forces in the region is testing Tsai Ing-wen's administration in the next two years. While avoiding war, Taiwan should guide to establish a peaceful and stable framework for cross-strait relations. While maintaining good relations with the United States, Taiwan should avoid becoming a pawn of the United States to contain China. Taiwan must formulate and master its own hedging strategy, avoid following Ukraine's footsteps (Ukraine has become a war agent for Western-Russian interest conflict), and let Beijing have a vision for the future development of the two sides of the strait, including restoring cross-strait exchanges and dialogues and deepening cross-strait economic and cultural cooperation. For Taiwan, its international status, suffering consciousness, national security, and national consensus are particularly important. Taiwan should conduct a rolling review of the cross-strait issue, how to avoid war, take the initiative to strengthen cross-strait communication, conduct constructive assessments, and establish cross-strait confidence measures, including establishing a cross-strait military mutual trust mechanism, establishing an alternative consensus to shelve disputes, and encouraging cross-strait people-to-people exchanges to resolve hostility. There are no winners in war, no losers in peace. A great country serves a small one with kindness. A small country serves a large one with wisdom.