以灰預測GM(1,1)模式探討宜蘭縣人口預測之研究－兼論人口結構特性

Applied GM(1,1) Model to Predict the Population in Yilan County and Investigate the Characteristic of Population Structure

陳俊合

《蘭陽學報》 6期 (2007/06) Pp. 40-50

https://doi.org/10.6665/JLYIT.2007.6.40

摘要

宜蘭縣地處東部區域，往年因聯外交通不便、一級產業居多及就業機會稀少等因素，導致縣內之人口外移及人口呈遞減現象，但北宜高速公路之開通將大幅提升其對外交通之可及性，人口是否仍呈負成長值得加以探討。十二市鎮鄉各人口之年增減量如何變動？宜蘭縣是否已進入高齡化社會？此等人口特性變化議題及未來發展趨勢值得加以釐清。
本研究以宜蘭縣近年來之人口資料為基礎，分析宜蘭縣人口之結構特性，結果發現宜蘭縣已進入高齡化社會，且宜蘭縣十二市鎮鄉近年來僅宜蘭市與羅東鎮之人口呈現正成長，其餘十鎮鄉之人口除冬山鄉近二年外幾皆呈衰減現象。本研究進而藉由灰預測GM(1,1)模式推估宜蘭縣未來可能之人口，以提供政府部門擬議人口發展政策之參考。

關鍵字

人口結構 ； 人口預測 ； 灰預測模式 ； GM 1,1

並列摘要

Yilan county is located in eastern region of Taiwan. Because of inconvenience of traffic, most industries based on agriculture and scarce of employment, etc, the population was emigrating and decreasing. Nowadays, the Taipei-Yilan expressway will enhance the traffic accessibility of Yilan county, whether the growth of population will still be negative or not is deserved to be investigated. How the annual variability of the population will be in the twelve districts of Yilan county? Is Yilan county a society of advanced age? These issues and development trend in the future should be inquired.
This study investigated the characteristic of population in Yilan county on the basis of population data recently, and distinguished the diversity of population among the twelve districts in Yilan county. This paper finds Yilan county has been a society of advanced age, and only the population of Yilan city and Luodong township are positive growth, the population of other districts are almost negative growth besides Dongshan township. Furthermore by means of Grey Forecasting GM(1,1) Model to predict the population in the future, in order to propose results to the government for reference when making decision in population policy.

並列關鍵字

population structure ； population prediction ； grey forecasting model ； GM 1,1

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