戰後臺灣鄉鎮人口變遷之研究－以臺中縣各鄉鎮為例

戰後臺灣在相對封閉性人口的環境中，人口變動主要來自於內部的人口自然增長，而非外部的人口社會遷徙。但對臺灣內部各縣市鄉鎮而言，影響人口集散與都市化程度的主要因素，則是以區域間的人口社會遷徙為主要因素。本文以臺中縣各鄉鎮為研究範圍，觀察戰後各鄉鎮人口自然增長與人口社會變動對總人口數變動的影響；同時也就各鄉鎮人口變動的幅度，說明戰後臺灣鄉鎮人口成長的基本模式。最後，就各鄉鎮人口成長模式，比對現行區域劃分，觀察哪一種區域劃分較符合人口成長的現況。根據本文研究指出，臺中縣各鄉鎮人口發展趨勢，在1975年以前人口自然增長仍是影響各鄉鎮人口規模的主要因素；1975年以後人口社會變動才逐漸取代人口自然增長，成為影響鄉鎮人口規模的主要因素。其次，在鄉鎮人口成長模式方面，本文指出戰後臺中縣21鄉鎮人口變動類型基本上可分為已達預期增長與未達預期增長兩大類型。其中，「已達預期增長的人口變動類型」，又可因其增長率之高低區分為「顯著增長的人口變動類型」與「緩慢增長的人口變動類型」。未達預期增長類型之鄉鎮，若長期維持相同情勢，則將成為漸趨飽和增長，或增長停滯兩種人口變動類型。最後，就不同時期各鄉鎮人口變動的類型加以分類，發現除了后里鄉外，大致而言五區域之「產業發展區域劃分」法，比三區域之「現行區域劃分」更符合鄉鎮人口變動的實際形勢。

關鍵字

臺中縣；鄉鎮；人口成長；人口自然增長；人口社會遷徙；人口成長類刑

並列摘要

Taiwan remained in a relatively closed population environment after the WW Ⅱ, and the changes in population mostly came from the growth of the existing population, instead of migration from outside. To villages and township in counties of Taiwan, the main factor affecting the population distribution and level of urbanization is regional population movement. With research scope on villages and township in Taichung County, this paper discusses the natural population growth and the effect of population change on the total population after war, and explains the basic model of village and township population growth. Lastly, this paper compares the existing division of administrative zones based on the population growth model, and analyzes the most suitable division of administrative zones for the existing population growth. The results showed that the main factor affection the population scale in villages and township in Taichung County before 1975 was natural population growth and that after 1975 was population movement. Concerning the population growth model, the types of population movement in 21 villages and township in Taichung County are ”exceeding the expectation” and ”not exceeding the expectation”. The ”exceeding the expectation” type includes ”significant population movement type” and ”slow population movement type”. The ”not exceeding the expectation” type, if maintaining the same trend, will become ”saturated growth type” and ”stagnant growth type”. Lastly, the results of classification of different population movement types for the villages and township in periods showed that ”industrial development zone division” for five zones is more suitable than ”existing zone division” for three zones, except for Houli Township.