應用系統動力學探討基隆港口城市之發展策略

基隆是台灣北部著名的港口城市，也曾在1970年代扮演區域經濟發展的要角，1984年亦曾擁有世界第七大貨櫃港的殊榮，近年來卻因貨運量衰退而失色。由於基隆港市分屬兩個不同管理系統及層級，欠缺充分的溝通與協調，使得港市之間的關係逐漸疏離，故如何將強港口與城市的聯繫及合作，增進競爭優勢以因應未來全球化的趨勢與挑戰實屬當務之急。然因港市的合作與發展實為一種牽涉因素繁多的複雜系統，因此本文嘗試以系統動力學的理論與方法來分析基隆港口城市的問題與發展，藉由三種不同情境策略設計下（1.維持原政策，2.港口轉型和發展觀光，3.增進郵輪旅遊與觀光產業）的系統動力模擬測試得知若基隆能強化港口與城市合作，規劃港口轉型，重視郵輪旅遊，妥善行銷基隆之文化和觀光產業，則能增進居民就業與經濟繁榮，也可使基隆港市的發展止跌回升，再創繁華盛景；因此可知系統動力學的模式對於港市的政策推行與評估有其應用價值與功能。

關鍵字

基隆；系統動力學；觀光產業

並列摘要

As a famous port city in northern Taiwan, Keelung in the 1970s once played an important role in regional economic development. Keelung ranked as the seventh largest container port in 1984. But the city gradually decayed due reductions in cargo traffic. Due to historic reasons, the port and city of Keelung have been under different management departments and have become increasingly detached from each other. However, with the increase in global competition, both the city and port are requesting to be upgraded, and greater cooperation between the two appears to be a crucial first step. However, since the systems of both sides are complex, the ways and means to promote city-port cooperation are also complicated. This paper therefore applies System Dynamics to analyze the options. It applies three different situation simulations (1. Maintain the current situation, 2. Port transition to cruise port, and development of tourism, 3. Promotion of cruise travel and tourism). Based on the models, it appears that Keelung can revive itself and become a prosperous and bustling city by enhancing the cooperation programs to become a cruise port to profit from growing trends in cruises and tourism. It is hoped that this System Dynamics approach will assist Keelung in drawing up a successful development strategy.