台灣壽險業清償能力之研究

本研究主要目的爲建立台灣壽險公司清償能力之預警制度，由於國內缺乏“失卻清償”壽險公司之資料，因此本研究首先採用RBC推估比率，並配合常態分配的概念得出評等等級以區分“無失卻清償能力”及“有失卻清償能力”的壽險公司，接著利用因素分析找出影響壽險公司失卻清償的財業務指標，依序命名爲獲利能力指標、經營能力指標、財務結構指標、逾放比指標及償債能力指標。最後利用線性區別分析及Logistic迴歸分析兩種方法，搭配投入「全變數」及「前進逐步區別」兩種型態，再配對樣本「1比1」，「2比1」及「整體資料」三種型態，合計共12種模式，以找出壽險業失卻清償能力之最適預警模式。

關鍵字

壽險公司；失卻清償能力；區別分析； Logistic迴歸分析

並列摘要

This research applies discriminant analysis, factor analysis, and score-method to establish the forewarning system of solvency and insolvency for the life insurance companies in Taiwan. Owing to insufficient data of the inland insolvent companies, so in this research we use the estimated RBC ratio first and fit with the normal distribution concept to obtain the ranks of evaluation to discriminate the solvent companies and the insolvent companies. On the other hand, apply factor analysis to reduce the variables into five factors, which are defined as ”benefit ability index,” ”management ability index,” ”financial structure index,” ”non-performing loans index” and ”debt paying ability index.” Finally, apply the linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis, then combine with ”all variables” and ”stepwise discriminant” two types, then match with three sample types, which are ”1:1, ” ”2:1” and ”the whole data,” altogether twelve kinds of models, to establish the appropriate forewarn models of insolvency for life insurance industry.